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Wellness

Is the 'cure worse than the disease?' Health stats from the Great Depression show it's not.

Is the 'cure worse than the disease?' Health stats from the Great Depression show it's not.
Photo by Sonder Quest on Unsplash

We've been "locked down" for nearly two months, and people are are understandably tired of it. Millions of Americans are out of work, which means many have also lost their employer-provided health insurance. Our economy has slowed to a crawl, businesses are shuttered, and everyone is worried about the sustainability of it all.

"We can't let the cure be worse than the disease," people say. The president himself has repeated this line, the implication being that the impact of the lockdowns will be worse than the impact of the virus. Just today in his press briefing the president mentioned suicides and drug overdoses as tragic consequences of the lockdowns, stating that more Americans could die of those causes than the virus if we fall into an extended economic depression.



Is that true, though? While no one can predict the future, death statistics and economic history in the U.S. do not support that idea at all. Not even close.

Let's start with suicides. During the two worst years of the Great Depression, 20,000 Americans per year took their own lives. That's tragic—but it's nowhere near the number of Americans that have died of COVID-19 just in the past month.

Screenshot via Worldometers

Of course, the U.S. population has nearly tripled since the Great Depression, so we can't compare that number directly. But even if we triple those Great Depression suicides to 60,000 a year to account for population change, that's still not as many Americans as have died of COVID-19 in just the past 5 weeks.

Using a different calculation, there was a 25% increase in suicides during the Great Depression. With ~48,000 suicides in the U.S. in 2018, a 25% increase would also put the annual number at 60,000. No suicide number is a good number, of course. But by no math in the universe is an extra 12,000 deaths per year anywhere near the 80,000 Americans who have died of COVID-19 in the past two months.

Our COVID-19 deaths have averaged around 2000 per day for weeks while under lockdown. At no time in our history, through bad economic depressions and horrific world wars, has 2000 Americans died of suicide per day. Even if our suicide numbers tripled—a 12 times greater increase than during the worst years of the Great Depression—that would still be less than 400 people dying of suicide per day. A terrible number, but not nearly as terrible as 2000 per day.

What about drug overdoses? Well, that's a little trickier to gauge. I've not seen any statistics about drug overdoses during the Great Depression, and we already had an opioid crisis flourishing before the pandemic hit. I imagine it's probably harder for people to get the drugs to feed an addiction right now, so I'm not convinced that there would be an enormous increase in drug overdoses. But for the sake of argument, let's say drug overdoses doubled. Highly unlikely, but let's go with it.

In 2018, the last year for which we have statistics, 184 people per day died of drug overdose. If we double that, we're talking around 370 people per day—still less than one-fourth the number of Americans dying of COVID-19 per day in the past month.

Even added together, those extreme suicide and drug overdose scenarios don't add up to our current COVID-19 situation. And once again—those numbers are with lockdowns in place.

What about starvation, though? Surely millions would die of starvation or malnutrition in a tanked economy, right? Well, no—for a couple of reasons.

1) The reality is if anyone starves to death in the U.S., a country that has the ability to produce more than enough food to feed our population, that's a mismanagement of resources, not an inevitable outcome of an economic crash.

2) Americans didn't die of starvation in large numbers during the Great Depression.

In fact—are you ready for a rather mind-blowing statistic—the overall health of Americans didn't decline during the Great Depression at all. It improved.

People lived years longer during the Depression. Life expectancy rose. Mortality rates dropped in every category (except suicide) across practically every demographic.

In fact, this pattern shows up consistently during economic booms and recessions. More people die—and die at younger ages—during economic booms. Vice versa during recessions. Counterintuitive? Yes. But that's what the data shows. (Here's the 2009 study that shows these trends during the Great Depression.)

We could debate the reasons for this, but it doesn't really matter. The point is, if the "cure" is a lockdown that results in an economic depression and the "disease" is the virus spreading unchecked, we have no evidence that the cure is or could be worse than the disease, at least not in terms of death counts.

Now clearly, there are huge problems with a tanked economy. Mental health issues increase. Life is hard. People struggle and suffer and we certainly should not minimize that. BUT...

Mass death and mass illness also cause suffering and mental health issues, while also hurting the economy.

I've seen people say we open back up, shoot for herd immunity, and just accept the fact that people will die. But that notion completely ignores the economic impact of having a big chunk of the population too sick to work. As we hear more and more people describe their COVID-19 journeys, it's becoming clear that even infected people who don't have to be hospitalized can still be very ill for weeks.

Let's do some quick herd immunity math. Reaching herd immunity means 70% of the population would have to get the virus. (Some say 60%, some say 80 or 90%—let's go with the middle.) That's 229 million people in the U.S. We don't have a good enough hold on this virus to know how many people have already have it or how many would be asymptomatic, but a current guess for asymptomatic cases is 25% to 50%. Let's go with the higher.

That would mean 114.5 million Americans being symptomatically ill. It's impossible to know how severe each person's case would be, but if even half of those with symptoms got flu-level ill, that would be 56 million people too sick to work for weeks. Some would have lingering health issues afterward to boot. What would that kind of mass illness to do to the economy?

And we haven't even gotten to the people dying yet. We don't have an accurate mortality rate, but let's go with a conservative 0.5% death rate (meaning 99.5% of people who get it, survive it). We're still talking 1,135,000 deaths if we shoot for 70% herd immunity at that death rate. That basically means we'd all know people who died of this disease.

I'm pretty sure mass grieving over a huge death toll in a short period of time isn't great for the economy, either. (Perhaps instead of deciding how much death and illness we're willing to tolerate, we could take this opportunity to fundamentally rethink how our economy works? Just a thought.)

Granted, all of these numbers are based on data that keeps changing as we learn more about the virus and its impact. We don't know enough yet to say anything for sure. We don't even know if people are truly immune yet. We do know the virus is real, and that it's more contagious and more deadly than the flu. Everything else is a best guess.

Essentially, there are no good options before us at the moment that don't involve great losses of one kind or another. But by no historical or statistical measure do we have evidence that the cure worse than the disease—at least with the data we have right now.

A guy having a collaborative conversation.

The quickest way to stop having a constructive dialog with someone is when they become defensive. This usually results in them digging in their heels and making you defensive. This can result in a vicious cycle of back-and-forth defensive behavior that can feel impossible to break. Once that happens, the walls go up, the gloves come off and resolving the situation becomes tough.

Amanda Ripley, author of “High Conflict: Why We Get Trapped and How We Get Out,” says in her book that you can prevent someone you disagree with from becoming defensive by being curious about their opinion.

Ripley is a bestselling author and the co-founder of Good Conflict, a media and training company that helps people reimagine conflict.


How to have a constructive conversation

Let’s say you believe the room should be painted red and your spouse says it should be blue. Instead of saying, “I think blue is ugly,” you can say, “It’s interesting that you say that…” and ask them to explain why they chose blue.

The key phrase is: “It’s interesting that you say that…”


conversation, arguments, communication tipsPeople coming to an agreement. via Canva/Photos

When you show the other person that you genuinely care about their thoughts and appreciate their reasoning, they let down their guard. This makes them feel heard and encourages them to hear your side as well. This approach also encourages the person you disagree with to consider coming up with a collaborative solution instead of arguing to defend their position.

It’s important to assume the other person has the best intentions while listening to them make their case. “To be genuinely curious, we need to refrain from judgment and making negative assumptions about others. Assume the other person didn’t intend to annoy you. Assume they are doing the best they can. Assume the very best about them. You’ll appreciate it when others do it for you,” Kaitlyn Skelly at The Ripple Effect Education writes.

Phrases you can use to avoid an argument

The curiosity approach can also involve affirming the other person’s perspective while adding your own, using a phrase like, “On the one hand, I see what you’re saying. On the other hand…”

Here are some other phrases you can use:

“I wonder if…”

“It’s interesting that you say that because I see it differently…”

“I might be wrong, but…”

“How funny! I had a different reaction…”

“I hadn’t thought of it like that! For me, though, it seems…”

“I think I understand your point, though I look at it a little differently…”


conversation, arguments, communication tipsTwo men high-fiving one another.via Canva/Photos

What's the best way to disagree with people?

A 2016 study from Yale University supports Ripley’s ideas. The study found that when people argue to “win,” they take a hard line and only see one correct answer in the conflict. Whereas those who want to “learn” are more likely to see that there is more than one solution to the problem. At that point, competition magically turns into collaboration.

“Being willing to hear out other perspectives and engage in dialogue that isn’t simply meant to convince the other person you’re right can lead to all sorts of unexpected insights,” psychologist and marketing Professor at Southern Methodist University tells CNBC.

In a world of strong opinions and differing perspectives, curiosity can be a superpower that helps you have more constructive conversations with those with whom you disagree. All it takes is a little humility and an open mind, and you can turn conflict into collaboration, building bridges instead of walls.

New citizen breaks down in tears over voting for first time

Every four years there's an election for president of the United States of America. Of course there are other elections taking place for congressional seats, the House of Representatives every two years, Senate every six years. Aside from federal level elections there are a lot of local elections constantly happening that directly impact the lives of American citizens within cities, counties and states.

Every election that takes place allows Americans to have a say in their daily lives by choosing who will directly govern them from city council to school boards, up to state legislatures and beyond. But not everyone living in America can participate in one of the greatest civic duties entrusted on the citizens of this country.

The ability to vote in elections is one thing that many Americans can take for granted but for Vivaldi, it's a privilege he's waited a long time to gain.


Vivaldi who goes by the name Whistling Vivaldi recently shared that he voted for the first time in an emotional video. The Haitian American man has clearly been crying before he turns on his camera to hit record, clearing his throat to say, "I'm going to try my best to get through this. I do not know if natural born citizens know what this feels like."

a hand holding a red button that says i vote Photo by Parker Johnson on Unsplash

Before he could finish his thought he immediately got choked up again. Vivaldi explains that his family came to America when he was a child in 1999 which was followed by several major events, including the towers of the World Trade Center coming down.

"There was nothing you could really do, things were just happening and you were trying to overcome. Be that 9/11, be that Katrina, be that Sandy Hook, be that the overturning of Roe, be the overturning of affirmative action, be that Citizens United, be that the Patriot Act, be that the housing crash, everything, right? These things were occurring, they were altering the trajectory of people's lives and if you weren't a citizen and you couldn't vote, you really just had to suck it up and take what you got," Vivaldi says.

polling station poster on clear glass door Photo by Elliott Stallion on Unsplash

Without a vote there aren't many options to affect change in your city, county or country. Running for office even at local levels are reserved for people who are registered to vote in most places. Outside of speaking at a city council or school board meeting, immigrants have no meaningful way to do their part to make their voices count, whether they're tax paying or not.

For Vivaldi, he says social media was his only way to get people to hear him in an attempt to affect change. That's when he's completely overcome with emotions while trying to finish his announcement.

red and blue building illustration Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

"After 20 years, I guess 26 years," the emotional man takes a deep breath. "I finally got to vote today, for the first time," Vivaldi couldn't stop the tears from flowing. "And maybe, just maybe, I was able to affect the trajectory of not just my own life but that of my family, that of millions, probably even billions of people around the world. Hopefully alleviate some sort of suffering."

Once Vivaldi composed himself he directed his attention to Americans who think their votes don't matter to remind them that it does matter.

"But there are people like my family that have left everything behind. That have spent thousands and traveled across oceans for just the maybe, just the possibility," and with that he encourages everyone to go out and vote.


The emotional video struck a lot of people including immigrants who were recently naturalized getting to vote for the first time this election cycle. Support for Vivaldi was overwhelmingly positive as his tears reminds others what some Americans take for granted.

"You are everything this country was meant to be. I felt this to my core. I cried with you. I am so glad you and your family are here. Embrace every emotion. Every moment. You are part of the change," one person praises.

A fellow immigrant shares, "after 19 years in America, I became a citizen 1 year ago. On Teusday[sic] I will be voting for the 1st time. I feel this deep."

Vote Voting GIF by The Drew Barrymore ShowGiphy

"THIS is what being American means. You’re amazing and I’m so happy you’re here and we should all be proud and grateful you and your family are here," another shares.

"You made me cry like a baby! Thank you for taking this right and responsibility so seriously. Congratulations," someone else chimes in.

"I feel this in my soul. I’m 47 just became a citizen last year and voted this week for the first time and it is an emotional experience. Thank you for sharing this message," another person shares in the emotion.

This year millions of people across America will be exercising their right to vote and for those recently naturalized participating for the first time, may you feel immensely proud of the ballot you cast.

Modern Families

Do you have a "living room family" or a "bedroom family"?

This 'debate' is all the rage on TikTok. But one is not better than the other.

alexxx1915/TikTok

TikTok user alexxx1915 recently posted a short video with the caption: "I just learned the term 'living room family' and I never understood why my kids never played in their rooms when I always did as a kid."

She briefly shows her kids hanging out in the living room with their pet dog and some toys scattered around the floor, before panning to her own face and giving a sort of sentimental look. The simple, ten-second clip struck a huge nerve with parents, racking up over 25 million views and thousands of heartfelt comments.






@alexxx1915

#livingroomfamily #fypシ

What are "living room families" and "bedroom families"?

This idea has been going around for a while on social media.

Simply put, a living room family is a family that congregates in the living room, or any common space in the household. Kids play in the same space where the adults relax — and things are often messy, as a result. Everyone interacts with each other and spends lots of time together. Bedrooms are reserved mostly for sleeping and dressing.

A bedroom family, on the other hand, is where the kids spend more time in their rooms. They play there, watch TV, and maybe even eat meals. Typically, the main rooms of the house are kept neat and tidy — you won't find a lot of toys scattered about — and family time spent together is more structured and planned ahead rather than casual.

"Living room families" has become the latest aspirational term on TikTok. Everyone wants to be a living room family!

The implication of being a bedroom family, or having 'room kids', is that perhaps they don't feel safe or comfortable or even allowed to take up room in the rest of the house, or to be around the adults.

"I remember my brother coming round once and he just sat in silence while watching my kids play in livingroom. After a while he looked at me and said 'It's so nice that your kids want to be around you'" one commenter said on alexxx1915's video.

"I thought my kids hated their rooms 🥺 turns out they like me more" said another.

"You broke a generational curse. Good job mama!" said yet another.

There's so much that's great about having a family that lives out in the open — especially if you were raised feeling like you had to hide in your room.

In my own household, we're definitely a living room family. We're around each other constantly, and the house is often a mess because of it. Learning about this term makes me feel a little better that my kids want to be around us and feel comfortable enough to get their 'play mess' all over the living room.

The mess is a sign of the love and comfort we all share together.

But the big twist is that it's also perfectly fine if your kids — and you! — like a little more solitary time.

boy playing with toys on the floorGavyn Alejandro/Unsplash

Being a 'bedroom family' is actually perfectly OK.

There's a similar discourse that took place last year about living room parents vs bedroom parents. The general consensus seemed to be that it was better to be a living room parent, who relaxed out in the open versus taking alone time behind closed doors.

But it really doesn't have to be one or the other, and neither is necessarily better.

Making your kids feel relegated to their room is, obviously, not great. It's not a good thing if they feel like they're not allowed to exist in and play in the rest of the house.

But if they just like hanging out in their room? Nothing wrong with that at all! And same goes for parents.

Alone time is important for parents and kids alike, and everyone needs different amounts of it to thrive.

Kids with certain special needs, like being on the autism spectrum, may be absolutely thrilled to spend lots of time in their rooms, for example.

So are you a living room family or a bedroom family? Turns out, it doesn't really matter, as long as your family loves each other and allows everyone to be exactly who they are.

Democracy

Big study finds conservatives are happier, but liberals enjoy this aspect of life more

The way we see the world has a significant effect on our psyche.

Some Trump supporters and a Harris voter.

Identifying as a liberal or conservative means a lot more than simply voting Democrat or Republican. These views stem from a difference in worldview and values and they significantly affect how satisfied we are with our lives.

Generally speaking, American conservatives believe the political system is fair and provides a stable foundation for people to pursue their dreams. They also value tradition, stability, conformity and safety. American liberals, on the other hand, are concerned about the political system's fairness and are more comfortable with ambiguity, nuance, diversity and new experiences.

This difference is evident in the places where liberals and conservatives choose to live. You’re much more likely to find liberals residing in metropolitan areas full of diversity and culture. In contrast, conservatives prefer rural areas that are culturally homogeneous and steeped in traditional values.



conservatives, liberals, studiesA farmer and his hay.via Canva/Photos

Who’s happier, conservatives or liberals?

Multiple studies, including a new one published in the Journal of Personality, have found that happiness and meaning are more associated with conservative views because they believe in the system and are satisfied by hard work.

The Journal of Personality is the American Psychological Association’s top-ranked peer-reviewed journal on personality and social psychology.

“Across six studies, we largely replicate earlier findings that happiness was associated with slightly more political conservatism,” the researchers wrote. “Happiness was also associated with system justification, or the tendency to see the current political, economic, and societal systems to be fair and defendable. Meanwhile, meaning in life was consistently associated with Protestant work ethic, or the view that hard work will lead to success in life.”

Why are conservatives happier than liberals?

Simply put, conservatives believe that America is a meritocracy where anybody who works hard can make it, giving them a sense of happiness. This also means that they feel less responsible for those who do not make it because they believe it is due to their own choices or a lack of work ethic.

However, liberals are more likely to think that the system isn’t a meritocracy because there isn’t an equal playing field for women, people of color, those with disabilities, immigrants, or people who are born into economically disadvantaged families. The feeling that you live in an unfair world, whether you are a member of a privileged group or not, can create a sense of constant unease.

So, it makes sense those who think the system is fair are happier than those who do not.

conservatives, liberals, studiesA couple protesting for free healthcare.via Elvert Barnes/Flickr

How are liberals different from conservatives?

On the other hand, the researchers found that liberals live a much more psychologically rich life than conservatives, mainly because they are more open to new experiences. Liberals are likelier to live abroad, experience different cultures and read fiction. The researchers note that liberals are much more open to broadening their perspectives than conservatives and see it as an opportunity for personal growth. Conservatives may see new experiences as threatening to their safety or traditional beliefs.

The study makes an interesting point: People who believe they live and work in a fair system are bound to be happier than those who feel it’s unjust. However, it also shows that those who value tradition and stability highly may miss out on much of the richness life offers.

“We are not claiming that a psychologically rich life is by any means better than a happy life or a meaningful life,” the researchers concluded. “Indeed, it is clear that a happy life and a meaningful life are desirable lives, associated with stable social relationships, prosocial behaviors, and health.”

Canva

Small actions lead to big movements.

Acts of kindness—we know they’re important not only for others, but for ourselves. They can contribute to a more positive community and help us feel more connected, happier even. But in our incessantly busy and hectic lives, performing good deeds can feel like an unattainable goal. Or perhaps we equate generosity with monetary contribution, which can feel like an impossible task depending on a person’s financial situation.

Perhaps surprisingly, the main reason people don’t offer more acts of kindness is the fear of being misunderstood. That is, at least, according to The Kindness Test—an online questionnaire about being nice to others that more than 60,000 people from 144 countries completed. It does make sense—having your good intentions be viewed as an awkward source of discomfort is not exactly fun for either party.

However, the results of The Kindness Test also indicated those fears were perhaps unfounded. The most common words people used were "happy," "grateful," "loved," "relieved" and "pleased" to describe their feelings after receiving kindness. Less than 1% of people said they felt embarrassed, according to the BBC.



So, maybe with kindness, we need to put our social anxieties away and act without overthinking (to a certain point, of course). Perhaps it’s best to find the simplest actions we can commit to on a daily basis, rather than formulating some grandiose gesture.

Reddit user u/tacoabouttoeat asked the online forum “what’s a small act of kindness that literally anyone can do/practice everyday?” and people gave some brilliantly simple ideas.

Here are eight easy-to-accomplish crowdsourced answers that might bring us one step closer to a more peaceful world:

1. Be aware of your surroundings.

reddit

It takes zero effort.

Giphy

Either move with the flow of traffic or get to the side if you have to situate yourself.” – @JoeMorgue

2. Use headphones when taking public transport.

jimmy fallon

A tune we can all groove to.

Giphy

If you don’t have them - you can go 20 minutes without making excessive noise while sharing a small space with other people.” – @cynthiayeo

3. Give compliments.

abbott elementary

Does anyone not like feeling appreciated? Anyone?

Giphy

“If you have a charitable thought about someone, even a stranger, say it out loud to their face. It is free, it is easy, and it might be the best thing that has happened to that person all week. Nothing creepy or overtly sexual or flirty, just kind words. ‘That shirt is really your color! Your haircut is beautiful. I appreciate your help, you were a real lifesaver!’ It doesn't cost you anything and it means the world to the people you are talking to.” – @Comments_Wyoming

4. Hold doors open for people.

how to be kind

An instant warm welcome no matter where you are.

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Makes a big difference in one's day.” – @sconnie64

5. Don’t act on “road rage."

acts of kindness

Be like bond. Keep it cool.

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After several years of commuting I came to the realization that with a few exceptional days, I always got home at the same time. Regardless of how many people ‘cut me off’ or drove too slowly and whatever. I started to just ‘go with the flow’ and always let people in when needed, always give extra room, and just enjoy my music/podcast. Life changing.” – @CPCOpposesAbortion

6. Have patience.

happier

You never know what someone is going through.

Giphy

You never know what someone else is going through. Could be a breakup, their dog just died, granny finally made it to heaven, or maybe mom just broke the news that she's got end stage cervical cancer and has weeks left to live. You never know, so be patient. After all, wouldn't you want someone to be patient with you?” – @mamalion12

7. Thank the people you live with for taking care of things around the house.

happiness

No, thank YOU for the "thank you."

Giphy

It doesn’t have to be over the top, but everyone feels better about doing chores when it is noticed and appreciated. ‘Thanks for folding my laundry’ or ‘thanks for always keeping track of our bills, you’re awesome at managing money!’” – @Mrshaydee

8. Leave a place you visit just a little bit nicer than when you found it.

pursuit of happiness

Your future self will thank you for it.

Giphy

Pick up a piece of litter at the park. Give that mat with a pucker ready to trip someone a little tug to get it to lay flat in the business you're at. Let an employee know when you spot a leaky dairy product on the shelves so they can deal with it. Return someone else's grocery cart.” – @BlueberryPiano


This article originally appeared on 10.4.22