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economy

An Old Navy Retail store.

Recent shake-ups in U.S. trade policy have caused many to fear that the United States economy may fall into a recession this year after remaining surprisingly resilient after the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, J.P. Morgan research raised the probability of a global recession to 40%. On March 19, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the chance of an upcoming recession is rising, but the probability is still not high.

Is the economy headed for a recession?

A recession occurs when the economy slows down for two consecutive quarters. The last time the U.S. economy hit a recession was a brief period from February to April 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even though the U.S. economy has yet to cross the line into recession, two savvy shoppers at Old Navy believe that the signs are all there when it comes to new clothing on the shelves.

TikToker Zoe (@zoezoezoezand) made her case in a viral video with over 790,000 views. “We're at Old Navy and we're pretty sure that they've got some recession predictors out here, so I'm gonna show you what we're talking about,” she said before pointing out that a frock was giving her Hunger Games vibes.

@zoezoezoezand

Old Navy wants us back in the factories y’all #oldnavy #recessioncore #recessionindicator #recession

“We're starting fresh with our District 12 frock, it's made out of a nice uh rough material that's what you want, it's a nice oatmeal color just like you want it,” Zoe jokes. For those of you who aren’t familiar with the Hunger Games series of books and films, District 12, located in Appalachia, was the smallest and poorest of the 13 districts.

Zoe added that another vintage-looking pair of pants was a sign that people will have to quit their cushy service jobs and return to working with their hands soon. “I know what you're thinking, those little pants aren't that bad, and they're not. I actually think they're kinda cute,” she said. “But what do they make you think of? Right, a sailor or perhaps Rosie the Riveter. They're trying to get us prepared to get back out to work.”

welders, female workers, 1940s, us history, steel, factory workers, alloy steel,A team of welders at the Tubular Alloy Steel Corporation. via M. Marshall/Wikimedia Commons

What is the Hemline Index?

While shopping at your local Old Navy may not give you the best economic indicators, there has been a correlation between women’s attire and the economy in American history. The “Hemline Index,” a theory that suggests hemlines get higher when the economy is good and lower when it turns sour.

InStyle notes that hemlines rose in the 1920s before the stock market crash that helped lead to the Great Depression in 1929. They rose again during the wartime boom of the 1940s and dropped again during the recession of 1949. A slow and steadily growing economy led to the creation of the mini shirt in the late ‘60s, which once again became longer after the 1987 crash.


Hopefully, the U.S. economy doesn’t go into a recession so that Americans and our friends worldwide don’t have to suffer through the belt-tightening that comes from a downturn. But, interestingly, history shows how today’s styles might indicate tomorrow’s economic signals. Because, as Zoe’s video shows, economies aren’t just random numbers on stock tickers and forecasts but actual indicators of how people think, feel, and behave.

Pop Culture

Frugal gamers share their tips for video gaming on a budget

Get hundreds of hours of video game entertainment for cheap or free

Beat the level, not your wallet

If you’ve been a video game fan that hasn’t really touched a game system since the Playstation 3 or earlier and want to get back into it, or if you’re a parent that’s unfamiliar with current gaming today that has kids that want to play, it can look very expensive. Seeing new video game titles averaging around $60 for the base game plus more money for additional downloadable content can give everyone a case of sticker shock. Per the Entertainment Software Association, Americans spent $57.2 billion on video games in 2023. However, gaming veterans have some tips for newbies that can save you big money in the long term while providing hours of entertainment. As brought up on Reddit and other social media, there are ways to start or continue your gaming habit during these more difficult economic times.

First is gaming hardware. Many longtime games recommend getting or using a PC for gaming over gaming consoles like an X-Box or Playstation. First, the vast majority of games, especially third party or independently made games, are typically readily available for personal computers to download through electronic shops such as Steam. Buying games digitally is typically cheaper since there is no packaging, shipping, and other costs that usually drive up the price of a physical copy of a game. Along with that, if you learn some know-how through YouTube tutorials, you can upgrade your PC every few years yourself so you can play the latest games at a fraction of the cost of the latest gaming console. If you want a throwback experience or show off games you grew up with to your kids, there are downloadable emulators that will bring your favorite past games to 2025.

However, if you prefer a current game console such as a Sony Playstation, Microsoft X-Box, or Nintendo Switch, you can still save some money if you have patience. New consoles will have the latest games but will be at the highest price. Even then, there will only be a handful of games. If you wait six months to a year, the console will likely be cheaper and there will be more games for it to choose from at a better price.

If you can’t wait, you can buy the previous generation console since it will definitely be cheaper, new or used, and its much bigger library of games will be cheaper, too. There are also plenty of second-hand gaming stores or Facebook groups to buy gently used games. You can also research to see if your local library offers video games to check out, too.



Much like PCs, many of these consoles have a digital store that offer downloadable versions of games that are often on sale. It’s not unheard of for a same to be $60 or more when it is first released, but gets put on sale at 90% off after six months. If you see a gaming title you like but doesn’t fit your budget, put it on your wishlist and check every once in a while to see if it’s on sale. It’s worth spending more money on adding digital storage space for your system, as you can potentially download hundreds of games at deep discounts over time. There are also subscription services such as Playstation Plus or X-Box Gamepass that add on new games each month that you can play for as long as you want at a fraction of the cost. Following social media accounts that keep track and alert followers of sales can also help you find great deals.

If you do want to upgrade to a current system, it may still be worth waiting to purchase it until the price goes down and more games are playable. But if you are willing to invest in a new system, it’ll be worthwhile to make sure that it is backwards compatible or that you’re able to redownload the games you previously purchased. Many companies are seeing this as a must-have feature, like Nintendo reassuring consumers that they’ll be able to play most of their original Switch games on the Switch 2.

It’s also worth looking into online and in-person gaming communities in order to learn about lesser known game titles to check out, trade with new friends, and find out about new deals to stay ahead of the curve.

Video games can be a great way to decompress and entertain yourself or your children. But with a little bit of research and chatting with other friendly folks in the video gaming community, you can enjoy this pastime by running through loop-de-loops like Sonic the Hedgehog rather than running through credit card debt.

Business

People say these 20 outdated financial myths could be hurting you in today's economy

"'That commodity prices, like gas and eggs, are controlled by the president.' False."

Credit is still wildly misunderstood.

The economy has changed a lot since we all took our high school Economics class. And it is certainly miles away from what our parents grew up with. And yet, many still hold on to certain money beliefs that come from these bygone eras. Or frankly, ones that never had a right to exist in the first place.

And honestly, there’s so much conflicting information out there (about all things, really, but we’ll stick to finances for the sake of the conversation) that it’s no wonder that so many people might just stick with what they know, even if certain money truisms aren’t all that true, and even they aren’t actually helping.

Recently, someone flat out asked, “What’s the biggest financial myth people still believe that’s actually hurting them in today’s economy?" Below are some of the most illuminating answers.

Right off the bat, we have some politically fueled myths to debunk:

1. "'That commodity prices, like gas and eggs, are controlled by the president.' False. They're actually priced on a trade market, bought and sold, with production controlled by large corporations."

2. "That immigrants are taking our jobs! Like seriously. If every immigrant, legal or otherwise, disappeared tomorrow, it wouldn't do a single positive thing for me personally, much less the broader economy."

"People are so ignorant about this. The trades would be hurting horribly if this happened,” one person replied.

Next up were long running myths that were also deeply entwined with our collective relationship to hustle culture.

Photo credit: Canva

3. "That hard work will lead to wealth. This simply is not correct for the vast majority of workers (read: anyone not C-level). The truth is that the US is a shareholder economy, not a labor economy. This means that even if someone is getting regular raises, they're likely barely keeping ahead of inflation."

4. "That your employer will be there for you when times are bad. Build and keep a savings. You are a liability to them, not an asset, and will ditch you the moment they can profit from it."

"^This. Always remember this,” someone replied. “You are a cog in the machine and if they can find a cheaper cog, they will. Oh, and HR is not your friend.”

Then there were the strategies many people implement in hopes to save money, which actually end up costing them in the long run, whether that’s with groceries or with housing.

Photo credit: Canva

5. "Dollar stores are generally a worse food value based on size/quantity. Sure, it's $1, but the $2.25 box at the grocery store has 500% more food by weight, therefore, is a much better value. You're paying a little less to get a lot less."

"If anyone didn't know, US grocery stores almost always put a price per unit on the price sticker (i.e., $1.23/lb or $0.0865/oz). You should be looking at these when comparing prices for exactly this reason," one person wrote.

6. "That cheapening out on your laundry doesn't impact your clothes' lifetime. You can vastly improve the life and sustained quality of your clothes by not throwing everything in the wash together. Also, most better quality laundry detergents need less to clean better, so spending a little more on a decent brand will give you better returns. I have also found they wash out better, too."

7. "'Paying rent is like throwing your money away.' The truth is renting is a better financial move than buying in a lot of markets where home prices are too high."

And yet, certain things that could definitely add value…people are afraid of, it seems.

Photo credit: Canva

8. "Not investing back into yourself. Investing doesn't always have to be some major cash return. It could be education, making your life easier so you have more time and energy, or simply relaxing. I know a lot of people who played the frugal game and are just now getting out in their 70s."

To this, someone replied, "I tell people that one of the best investments you can make early on in life is a top-tier mattress and office chair. The amount of money you'll save yourself on future medical bills is one of the best returns on investment you'll make in your life."

9. "'The stock market is just like gambling.' You are never going to accumulate enough money to retire without using the stock market. The market has always gone up in the long term. If it stops going up in the long term, society will be in pretty bad shape, and your money probably wouldn’t be worth anything anyway."

"'Time in the market beats timing the market.' The stock market can be gambling if you're into day trading and trying to achieve short-term gains. But if you're investing long term, then yes, it's a great tool for growing your wealth."

By and large, people seemed to think taxes were an elusive subject to most folks. And probably rightfully so. Along with credit cards, do any of us really ever get a basic education on this unless we actively seek it out?

Photo credit: Canva

10. "Turning down raises because 'it means a giant jump in my taxes.'"

"11. Understanding tax brackets (in the US) in general. Can't tell you how many times I heard mention that their raise/overtime/bonus will just be eaten up by taxes.Fine, I'll take your raise and pay the taxes. No one ever went broke paying taxes."

12. "People do not realize that a tax refund is their money to begin with and that they should have their deductions set up to break even or owe a little. A lot of people still think it's some kind of stimulus."

13. "That tax breaks for the wealthy will allow some of their wealth to 'trickle down' to us poors. Something is trickling down on us, but it's not money."

Speaking of credit cards, that was also a popular topic in the responses.

Photo credit: Canva

14. "Keeping a balance on your credit card DOES NOT improve your credit score. What it does do is get you comfortable having a balance on your credit card, which, when it likely gets out of control, is like napalm pouring down on your future financial hopes and dreams."

15. "Credit cards are great, but under no circumstance should you ever pay a penny of interest on your credit card. You absolutely need to pay off your entire credit card balance at the end of each month. Credit card debt is the last thing you want to have due to the ridiculous interest rates they charge."

16. "Credit cards are bad. If you use them right, you can actually come out ahead. Get a card with good cash-back rewards and use it for everything. I mean everything. If you can pay your rent, bills, and insurance with it, do it. If you can use it for work and they reimburse you, do it. Pay the balance off at the end of every month, and make sure you keep track of your ins and outs. It requires you to be responsible, but it's worth it."

There was also a lot of talk about how our mainstream views on success in general (what it looks like, how to actually achieve it, etc) are inherited myths.

Photo credit: Canva

17. "That you have the smallest of chances of becoming a billionaire. People don't understand the orders of magnitude difference between even a low-level multi-millionaire and a billionaire. At 100 million dollars, you're still 10 times closer to homelessness than you are to becoming a billionaire. Stop trying to get there. Stop voting for people and policies that promise you that opportunity. The only way these people achieve that wealth is through siphoning it away from everyone else."

"My wildly successful uncle came from true poverty and he's worth about $50 million. If you look at what it takes to get even there, it looks BARELY possible at best. He worked his ass off from his early teens, he's incredibly smart, he's incredibly good with money, AND he was lucky, and he's still only 5% of the way to a billion after a lifetime of work,"one person replied.

"18. That you need to spend big to look successful."

19. "That you deserve something you can’t afford because you work hard. Deserves has nothing to do with it."

Lastly, we have the myth of the savings account. More specifically, the myth of how helpful it really is.

20. "Just save money.' No. You need to do more. Most savings are not beating inflation. As a result your money is shrinking by doing that. One of the most insidious ways our money is effectively being stolen is just by having inflation make it worthless by the time you'll go to use it.The easiest thing I am aware of is to put it in an index fund that automatically reinvests. These are automatic funds that follow a set algorithm of stocks (an index) and do not have a human element in the decision making. They regularly outperform professionals. They typically do very well compared to inflation, and require zero maintenance."

Pop Culture

Middle class families share how much money they have in savings and it's eye-opening

"I transfer money each paycheck but always end up needing to transfer it back."

Many middle class families are sharing that they have nothing in savings right now.

According to an April 2024 Gallup poll, 54% of Americans identify as part of the middle class, with 39% identifying as "middle class" and 15% identifying as "upper-middle class." That percentage has held fairly steady for years, but for many, what it feels like to be a middle class American has shifted.

Notably, inflation caused by the pandemic has hit middle class families hard, with incomes not keeping up with cost-of-living increases. Housing costs have skyrocketed in many areas of the country, mortgage interest rates have risen to levels not seen since the pre-Obama era and grocery bills have increased significantly. One government study found that cost of living has increased between around $800 and $1,300 a month depending on the state since 2021, putting a squeeze on everyone, including the middle class.

One woman shared that her family is just getting by and asked other people who identify as middle class to "chime in" with what they have in their savings account.

"I swear, every paycheck I am putting money into my savings, but needing to transfer it back within a few days," shared @abbyy..rosee on TikTok. "My registration is due. My husband's registration is due. He needed two new tires, even though they had a warranty. That's $300. My oldest needs braces, he needs a palate expander, that's $120 a month. Not to mention groceries are $200 more a week. Forget about feeding your family great ingredients because who has $500 a week to spend on perfect ingredients to feed your family?"


@abbyy..rosee

somethings gotta give #savings #middleclass #relatable

She explained that her husband makes enough money that they should be able to live comfortably, and that she quit her job because the cost of daycare was more than she was making.

"At some point, something has to give," she said. "What is going on? How do I save money?"

People in the comments chimed in with their savings account totals and it was quite eye-opening. Many people shared that they have $0 saved.

"We make the most money we ever have and have zero savings. We live paycheck to paycheck and every month I don’t know how we get by."

"I think the middle class is 1 personal disaster away from bankruptcy."

"Y’all got savings accounts?!?! 😂"

"I used to freak out if I had under $10k in savings, now I’m happy when I have over $150. 😫"

"We make almost 100,000 a year with no savings!!!! It's always something!!"

"I'm lucky if we have $500-$1K for an emergency. every single time we start saving something happens. the vet, the cars, the kids... something."

"Savings account? I transfer money each paycheck but always end up needing to transfer it back. My husband makes great money too but we are scraping by."

"$803 but we have to pay a $750 deductible this week b/c my Husband hit a deer soooo… back at it 😭 It’s exhausting. Constantly draining it, refilling it, transferring."

Some people shared that they do have some savings, but several said it was because they'd had an inheritance or other chunk of money come their way. Many people shared that their savings has dwindled as increased costs have taken their toll. Some people gave lifestyle advice to save money, but most agreed that just the basics have gotten so expensive it's harder to make ends meet much less put extra into savings.

Thankfully, the inflation issue appears to be waning, but even just plateauing at their current financial reality isn't ideal for many American families. Middle class is supposed to be a comfortable place to be—not rich, but well enough off to feel secure. That's not how many middle class folks feel, though. Most Americans don't have anything close to the amount of money saved that is recommended across the age spectrum, but at least hearing that others are in the same boat is somewhat comforting.

It can be vulnerable to put your financial reality out there, but it's helpful to hear what other people are doing and dealing with so we all feel less alone when we're struggling. Perhaps if people were more open about money, we'd all be able to help one another find ways to improve our financial situations rather than lamenting our empty savings accounts and wondering how to change it.


This article originally appeared last year.