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Old Navy customers share the not-so-subtle fashion trends that show we're headed for a recession

People are noticing some Hunger Games vibes.

via Jo Zimny Photos/Flickr

An Old Navy Retail store.

Recent shake-ups in U.S. trade policy have caused many to fear that the United States economy may fall into a recession this year after remaining surprisingly resilient after the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, J.P. Morgan research raised the probability of a global recession to 40%. On March 19, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the chance of an upcoming recession is rising, but the probability is still not high.

Is the economy headed for a recession?

A recession occurs when the economy slows down for two consecutive quarters. The last time the U.S. economy hit a recession was a brief period from February to April 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even though the U.S. economy has yet to cross the line into recession, two savvy shoppers at Old Navy believe that the signs are all there when it comes to new clothing on the shelves.

TikToker Zoe (@zoezoezoezand) made her case in a viral video with over 790,000 views. “We're at Old Navy and we're pretty sure that they've got some recession predictors out here, so I'm gonna show you what we're talking about,” she said before pointing out that a frock was giving her Hunger Games vibes.

@zoezoezoezand
Old Navy wants us back in the factories y’all #oldnavy #recessioncore #recessionindicator #recession

“We're starting fresh with our District 12 frock, it's made out of a nice uh rough material that's what you want, it's a nice oatmeal color just like you want it,” Zoe jokes. For those of you who aren’t familiar with the Hunger Games series of books and films, District 12, located in Appalachia, was the smallest and poorest of the 13 districts.

Zoe added that another vintage-looking pair of pants was a sign that people will have to quit their cushy service jobs and return to working with their hands soon. “I know what you're thinking, those little pants aren't that bad, and they're not. I actually think they're kinda cute,” she said. “But what do they make you think of? Right, a sailor or perhaps Rosie the Riveter. They're trying to get us prepared to get back out to work.”

welders, female workers, 1940s, us history, steel, factory workers, alloy steel, A team of welders at the Tubular Alloy Steel Corporation. via M. Marshall/Wikimedia Commons

What is the Hemline Index?

While shopping at your local Old Navy may not give you the best economic indicators, there has been a correlation between women’s attire and the economy in American history. The “Hemline Index,” a theory that suggests hemlines get higher when the economy is good and lower when it turns sour.

InStyle notes that hemlines rose in the 1920s before the stock market crash that helped lead to the Great Depression in 1929. They rose again during the wartime boom of the 1940s and dropped again during the recession of 1949. A slow and steadily growing economy led to the creation of the mini shirt in the late ‘60s, which once again became longer after the 1987 crash.

How "short" is your economy? 😉

There's a theory called the "Hemline Index" which suggests that skirt lengths are related to economic conditions. Shorter skirts are said to indicate a booming economy, while longer skirts are associated with economic downturns. pic.twitter.com/pJ3udtDk5i
— Tree of Knowledge (@ToK_ScienceTree) February 5, 2025

Hopefully, the U.S. economy doesn’t go into a recession so that Americans and our friends worldwide don’t have to suffer through the belt-tightening that comes from a downturn. But, interestingly, history shows how today’s styles might indicate tomorrow’s economic signals. Because, as Zoe’s video shows, economies aren’t just random numbers on stock tickers and forecasts but actual indicators of how people think, feel, and behave.

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economy

Learning

In two sentences, finance guy crushes the idea of buying a new car. But people disagree.

Here's why people are still doing it.

via Canva/Photos

A woman gets the keys to her new car.

There are many reasons to be squeamish about spending money in today’s economy. Interest rates are high, trade wars may drive inflation, and financial experts say we may be headed for a recession. That comes after the post-COVID period, when the process of everyday necessities, such as rent and groceries, went sky-high.

There’s a lot of economic uncertainty out there, but that won’t stop some of us from needing a car. And, of course, those are getting more expensive, too. The average car cost $49,740 in January, nearly an all-time high. Part of that is inflation, but it’s also because Americans love buying nice cars, and more are choosing luxury models. So now, to purchase a new car at $49,740, with zero dollars down and a 5-year loan, would cost over $950 a month. That’s a lot of money for something that will only decrease in value.

Real estate expert and author of “Retire FIlthy Rich,“ Ravi Sharma, wasn’t shy about sharing his thoughts about buying a new car on TikTok. The post received over 1.2 million views.

"Controversial topic: That $50,000 car loan that you finally paid off after 5 years cost you $62,000 (due to interest). That car is now worth $20,000 due to depreciation. Losing $42,000 in 5 years would be seen as a bad investment, yet people are still buying new cars. Thoughts?"

@personalfinancewithravi
Controversial Topic - What’s your thoughts about this? 🤔 #personalfinancewithravi

Is it financially smart to buy a new car?

Sharma’s logic is hard to argue with. A car is a depreciating asset that will lose its value over time. In fact, according to Kelly Blue Book, the average new car loses 20% of its value after the first year. That number grows to over 60% after five years. So, why not buy a car that’s five years old, costs less money, and is significantly cheaper to insure?

Strangely, most people in the comments pushed back against Sharma’s logic. "You forgot to factor in the benefit of owning that vehicle and the pleasure of driving it. For most, it's priceless. Not everything in life is about making money," Patty wrote. "I have 3 bad investments and loving them. We only live once. Enjoy,” Rich added. Others noted that even though the car's value goes down, you got use out of the vehicle so it's not a total loss.

new car, finance, ravi sharma A woman inspects her new car. via Canva/Photos

There were a few people who agreed with Sharma. "Yes! Car payments are one of the top wealth killers. I have always bought used and paid cash,” a commenter wrote. "Amen. I’ve never purchased a brand-new vehicle. If you want to be a millionaire, don’t live like one,” another added. "Just driving the new car off the lot depreciates it by 20-25%. Buying pre-owned, someone else took that depreciation. Don't believe me? Buy a $50k new car then try to sell it tomorrow,” a commenter wrote.

Many people pushed back against Sharma because buying a new vehicle gives them joy. But the real question is, how long does that last before it just becomes your everyday car and no longer has the wow factor it had when you drove it off the lot? Further, going back to our car that cost $49,740 and about $950 a month, what if you bought a car for half the price and invested the $475 a month of the payment in a sensible mutual fund? After 5 years at 6% of growth, that would amount to over $32,000.

new car, finance, ravi sharma A woman gets the keys to her new car.via Canva/Photos

With the constantly rising cost of living, it’s good to consider what it really means to make a big purchase and whether the joy of something new is worth the loss that comes with spending versus investing. Ultimately, the decision comes down to one’s values and financial priorities. Is short-term satisfaction worth the long-term cost when opting for a used car means more financial freedom tomorrow?

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economics

Pop Culture

Here’s a paycheck for a McDonald’s worker. And here's my jaw dropping to the floor.

So we've all heard the numbers, but what does that mean in reality? Here's one year's wages — yes, full-time wages. Woo.

Making a little over 10,000 for a yearly salary.

I've written tons of things about minimum wage, backed up by fact-checkers and economists and scholarly studies. All of them point to raising the minimum wage as a solution to lifting people out of poverty and getting folks off of public assistance. It's slowly happening, and there's much more to be done.

But when it comes right down to it, where the rubber meets the road is what it means for everyday workers who have to live with those wages. I honestly don't know how they do it.

Ask yourself: Could I live on this small of a full-time paycheck? I know what my answer is.

(And note that the minimum wage in many parts of the county is STILL $7.25, so it would be even less than this).

paychecks, McDonalds, corporate power, broken system

One year of work at McDonalds grossed this worker $13,811.18.

assets.rebelmouse.io

The YouTube channel Just Frugal Me discussed the viral paycheck and noted there's absolutely nothing wrong with working at McDonald's. More than 2 million people in the U.S. alone work for the fast food giant. The worker's paycheck shows they put in 72 hours over the pay period making $8.75 per hour. Before taxes, that's $631 for the week. Just Frugal Me's breakdown is even more eye opening, breaking down this person's pay after taxes and weighed across average rent and utility costs. Spoiler Alert: the total costs for basic necessities far outweighs what this person is making even while working 12 hours per day. But they do make too much to qualify for Medicaid, meaning they will have to go out and buy their own health insurance.

Even in states like California, where the state's $20 minimum wage ensures that people earn nearly three times as much as the federal minimum wage, which remains as low as when this paycheck first made the rounds nearly 10 years ago.

Still, even for a worker that maxed out at 40 hours per week and took zero vacation or sick time, that's only a little over $41,000 per year. That's barely half the median wage in the state of $78,000 and far below a sustainable living wage in cities like Los Angeles.

This story originally appeared ten years ago. It has been updated to reflect new information.

From Your Site Articles

Joy

Man uses the shoe aisle to explain a troubling economic trend in middle-class American life

"The thing is, most people don’t want longevity anymore. They want new."

via Canva/Photos

Remember things being built to last?

It’s been proven that over the past few years, Americans have been dealing with shrinkflation, where food companies reduce the sizes of their products while the price remains the same at the grocery store. You see this in fast food restaurants when you pick up a burger and feel like your hand has grown a few inches, and at the supermarket when you buy a box of cookies, it weighs less than it did a few weeks ago. Companies use this strategy when they think you’ll be less likely to notice a dip in quantity than a hike in the price.

Another big trend in retail is fast fashion. People are buying cheaper garments made from low-quality materials. These products last about as long as the trend, so people throw them away and buy the next hot thing. This can be a real problem because fast fashion harms the environment and leads to exploitative labor practices.

A TikToker named Tom (@SideMoneyTom), popular for making videos about consumer products, recently went viral for a video where he called out shoe manufacturers for dropping their quality while keeping prices high. “So many of you guys want to shoot the messenger, but look, it's not my fault shoes are made out of Styrofoam and oil now,” Tom says in a TikTok with over 528,000 views. “It's literally every shoe you look at now. It's not even just the cheap ones. I can find hundred dollar plus pairs of shoes all day long with glue squeezing out of their Styrofoam cracks.”

@sidemoneytom
Replying to @Oscar Magaña shoes are done #fyp #shoes #foryou

Tom notes that recently, shoes have been made with foam soles instead of rubber. Both have pros and cons. Foam is a little more comfortable, but rubber lasts a lot longer. Rubber shoes keep shape and support over time and are much more durable. Conversely, foam shoes compress over time, losing their support and comfort. When companies sell cheaper shoes that wear out more quickly, they make much more money because you must keep replacing them.

In the video, Tom adds that many companies that used to have shoes made with rubber heels, such as Carhartt and Timberland, have switched to foam. This is an interesting choice for brands that pride themselves on selling durable products.

Cora Harrington, a writer and lingerie expert, says that companies aren't entirely to blame. Americans don’t want to pay higher prices. “People don’t exactly want to pay more for all that stuff,” Harrington told Vox. "So what has to happen if everything is more expensive and the customers still want to pay the same price, something has to be cut and that’s often going to be the quality of the garment.”

“There is an entire generation of consumers at this point that doesn’t actually know what high-quality clothing feels like and looks like,” Harrington continues. “It gets easier, I think, for consumers to just not know any better.”

@sidemoneytom
Replying to @donkles #shoes #fyp #sketchers #nike

Many commenters have noticed the decline in shoe quality and praised Tom for pointing it out. "I am so happy I’m not the only one who is baffled by shoes being made of styrofoam and then being upcharged for them," one commenter wrote. "When shoes started being named some version of 'Air Light Cloud float,' my thought was it was because they went from quality rubber to cheap foam and less materials,” another commenter added.

Tom believes the decline in shoe quality is an example of a more significant trend affecting American consumers' products: quality is decreasing while prices remain the same. “The quality of everything is going to hell, and the prices are going up," Tom concludes his video. "The problem is, so many of us have just become used to it that we keep buying it, and we basically allow them to dumb down the quality of everything. Everything in our lives. These shoes are just the tip of the iceberg. Start thinking about it in your life. What are you gonna allow to be garbage quality?

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economics

Democracy

Millennial says boomers have it backward when they talk about wasting money on 'luxuries'

Things couldn't have been more different.

via Canva

A young couple can't handle high prices and their dad says to save money.

One of the big talking points in the great American millennials versus baby boomers debate is whether the younger generation has knee-capped itself by its lavish spending habits that have prevented them from owning homes. If millennials stopped buying $14 avocado toast and $1,000 iPhones, would they be able to save enough for a down payment on a modest home?

Freddie Smith, 36, of Orlando, Florida, recently went viral on TikTok for a video in which he challenged the boomer argument with statistics from the Bureau of Labor, Federal Reserve, and the U.S. Census Bureau. Smith believes that the older generations misunderstand millennial finances because their concept of luxury is based on 1980s economics. Smith says that for baby boomers, essentials such as rent and child care were much more affordable, but items considered luxuries (TVs, CD players, computers) were much more expensive.

View this post on Instagram
A post shared by Freddie Smith (@fmsmith319)

How is the economy different for millennials than it was for baby boomers?

"The main shift is that core essentials—housing, education, healthcare, and even food—have become more expensive," Smith said. "Housing and rent, for instance, now outpace wage growth, making homeownership feel unattainable for many. The cost of childcare has also skyrocketed, and food prices have increased.”

"As a result, I think older generations have a different perspective on luxury versus necessity,” Smith continued. “They grew up in a time when hard work typically led to financial stability, whereas today, even with hard work, many people struggle with the high costs of housing, rent and medical expenses. Basic survival used to be far more affordable, allowing people more financial room to build a stable life."

Smith’s numbers don’t lie. For a person in the '80s to own three TVs, a CD player, a cellphone, a microwave, and a computer, it would cost them 3.5 years of rent or a 20% downpayment on the average home. So, it was irresponsible for someone in that period to purchase all of what was known then as luxuries. However, these days, for a Millennial to have the average apartment and the equivalent amount of "luxuries" would only cost a little over one month's rent.

1980s, boomers, millennials A 1980s computer and television. via Canva

"But if you skip that daily $6 Starbucks drink, you’ll have enough for the downpayment in 29.22 years," Yokahana joked in the comments. "I hate that housing and transportation have become luxuries," Molly added. "Imagine spending 3x your rent on a microwave," Donutdisaster wrote.

Why are luxury goods more affordable now than they were in the '80s?

The price of manufactured goods has steadily fallen over the last few decades due to technological improvements and trade policies that have allowed the U.S. to import goods from places where labor costs are cheaper. "International, global competition lowers prices directly from lower-cost imported goods, and indirectly by forcing U.S. manufacturers to behave more competitively, with lower prices, higher quality, better service, et cetera," Sociologist Joseph Cohen of Queens University said, according to Providence Journal.

Why are housing prices so high?

Housing prices in the US have soared due to the low inventory caused by the Great Recession, mortgage rates, and zoning laws that make building more challenging. Rents have increased considerably since the pandemic due to low inventory, inflation, barriers to home ownership, and the fact that more people want to live alone than with a roommate or romantic partner.

Smith’s breakdown of the economic changes over the past two generations makes a strong case for the idea that millennial financial troubles have more to do with systemic problems than spending habits. The boomers got a bad deal regarding luxury items, and the millennials with necessities. Wouldn’t living in a world where both were affordable in the same era be great?

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millennials

Business

This Map Reveals The True Value Of $100 In Each State

Your purchasing power can swing by 30% from state to state.

Image by Tax Foundation.

Map represents the value of 100 dollars.

As the cost of living in large cities continues to rise, more and more people are realizing that the value of a dollar in the United States is a very relative concept. For decades, cost of living indices have sought to address and benchmark the inconsistencies in what money will buy, but they are often so specific as to prevent a holistic picture or the ability to "browse" the data based on geographic location.

The Tax Foundation addressed many of these shortcomings using the most recent (2015) Bureau of Economic Analysis data to provide a familiar map of the United States overlaid with the relative value of what $100 is "worth" in each state. Granted, going state-by-state still introduces a fair amount of "smoothing" into the process — $100 will go farther in Los Angeles than in Fresno, for instance — but it does provide insight into where the value lies.

The map may not subvert one's intuitive assumptions, but it nonetheless quantities and presents the cost of living by geography in a brilliantly simple way. For instance, if you're looking for a beach lifestyle but don't want to pay California prices, try Florida, which is about as close to "average" — in terms of purchasing power, anyway — as any state in the Union. If you happen to find yourself in a "Brewster's Millions"-type situation, head to Hawaii, D.C., or New York. You'll burn through your money in no time.

income, money, economics, national average

The Relative Value of $100 in a state.

Image by Tax Foundation.

If you're quite fond of your cash and would prefer to keep it, get to Mississippi, which boasts a 16.1% premium on your cash from the national average.

The Tax Foundation notes that if you're using this map for a practical purpose, bear in mind that incomes also tend to rise in similar fashion, so one could safely assume that wages in these states are roughly inverse to the purchasing power $100 represents.

This article originally appeared seven years ago.

From Your Site Articles

money

Joy

A struggling cook asked Gordon Ramsay a personal question, and he responded in an unexpected way.

This was totally surprising.

Image (Cropped) from Dave Pullig/Wikimedia Commons/Attribution 2.0 Generic.

Gordon Ramsay at play... work.

Gordon Ramsay is not exactly known for being nice.

Or patient.

Or nurturing.

On his competition show Hell's Kitchen, he belittles cooks who can't keep up. If people come to him with their problems, he berates them. If someone is struggling to get something right in the kitchen, he curses them out.

His whole TV persona is based on being the world's worst boss.

In 2015, Ramsay went on Reddit and allowed users to ask him any question they wanted.

So, when a fellow cook asked him a sincere, deeply personal question about what to do when you've hit a roadblock in your career, you could probably guess what was coming.

How do you deal with it Ramsay?

Indeed, I thought the guy was making a terrible mistake pouring his heart out to a chef as notoriously tough as Ramsay:

"My hopes and dreams are nowhere to be found as I scale and portion salmon after salmon, shelling pods after pods of broad beans.
...
Sometimes I look out the tiny window and I can see people walking around the streets, enjoying the sunlight, while I'm here, questioning my dedication to this art as I rotate stock in the cool room, getting frost bitten, but the fear of the chef stops me from stepping outside to warm up.
...
The closest thing to feeling any kind of joy I get is those rare moments when I walk through the dining room near the end of service to get some coffee for everyone, and there will be a few diners left, idly sampling those little petite fours that we've painstakingly ensured are all perfectly round, identical, and just plain delicious. Then, one of them will stop the conversation they're having with their company, look up from their food and say, 'Thank you, chef. This is delicious,' and making the previous 14-hours of sweat and tears kind of worthwhile.

My question is, how did you deal with it? How the fuck did you deal with all the bullshit, Gordon?”

But the way Ramsay responded? Totally amazing. And completely unexpected.

That’s an amazing question.

Turns out, real-life Gordon Ramsay? He actually can be a really kind, big-hearted dude.

He's sympathetic to the guy. Not just because he's a good person. But because he's been there.

Working in restaurants is a tough, tough business. As of 2012, the average salary for cooks was less than $23,000/year. Eleven years later, the salary hasn't improved much. In 2023, the average salary for a cook was $34, 320 a year. And those who are just starting out often have to work unglamorous, tedious jobs that no one else wants to do. Ramsay didn't have fancy culinary school training. He rose up through the ranks putting in long hours for low pay in kitchens all over the world. That's why he gets it.

Which brings up another point.

(Does this salad dressing have black pepper in it?? No tip for you!)

Diet Dieting GIF by Bobbi DeCarlo - from GIPHY.

When we go out to eat, we, as a culture, tend to behave...how should I put this?

Let's go with "not like perfect angels."

Of course, no one likes getting the wrong order. Or waiting a really long time for a meal. Or eating something that doesn't taste the way you expect it to.

But it's important to remember that the people behind the food, like Ramsay's anonymous letter-writer, might be working 14-hour days. Or they might be a recent immigrant who speaks limited English, trying to support a family thousands of miles away. And possibly making very little money. And sure, they screw up sometimes. But we all screw up at our jobs sometimes.

Because they, like the rest of us, are human beings.

Which is why saying...

"Thank you, chef. This is delicious."

Could mean everything to someone.

This article originally appeared ten years ago.

From Your Site Articles

economics

Old Navy customers share the not-so-subtle fashion trends that show we're headed for a recession

People are noticing some Hunger Games vibes.

Is the economy headed for a recession?

What is the Hemline Index?