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Scientists at Hebrew University may have found a way to predict earthquakes

Researchers discover the slow, silent process that ignites earthquakes

Scientists are getting a better understanding on how and when earthquakes occur.

One of the biggest challenges regarding earthquakes is preparation. Aside from recognizing where faultlines lay and determining which areas are the most prone to earthquakes and earthquake damage, there is very little we can do to prepare for the next “big one.” Earthquakes can occur at any time and happen with little to no warning, at least not enough warning for people to seek safety before they hit. Scientists at Hebrew University in Israel may have found a way for us to predict earthquakes in the future.

Through a study done in Israel, Prof. Jay Fineberg and his team of researchers at the Racah Institute of Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem possibly found the causes that lead up to shaking tremors. Through experiments and theoretical models, they theorize that a fault’s geometry along with slow and steady displacement at certain stress points in the Earth’s crust typically precede a seismic rupture that leads to earthquakes.

Richter scaleThis new study could lead into better preparation for earthquakes.Photo credit: Canva

Tremors occur when cracks in the Earth’s crust suddenly give way, and previous studies have shown that slow movements do precede the formation of these cracks. Yet until now, the data of these processes has been relying on two-dimensional generalizations rather than practical or theoretical three-dimensional studies. Fineberg’s team looked into how slow, aseismic stress came into play within earthquake activity, how that stress evolves and nucleates into a budding and sudden tremor.

“Our findings challenge and refine conventional models of rupture dynamics," said Fineberg in a press release. "We show that slow, aseismic processes are a prerequisite for seismic rupture, driven by localized stress and geometric constraints. This has profound implications for understanding when and how earthquakes begin.”

A torn down house and rubble from an earthquakeBeing able to predict an earthquake could help prevent further injuries.Photo credit: Canva

Further testing needs to be made in order to further confirm Fineberg and his team’s conclusions, however this leads to a greater understanding into how earthquakes happen and identify new focal points. Should these solid theories become reality, it could lead to better warnings of earthquakes before they start, leading to better systems to inform the public so they can better prepare before the tremor fully hits.

Meanwhile, if you live near or in an area prone to earthquakes, it’s best to be prepared for the worst. According to experts at the U.S. Geological Survey, if you are caught in the middle of an earthquake, take cover under a heavy desk or table, away from any windows or top-heavy furniture. Stay in place, as most people injured inside a building during an earthquake are those trying to move to a different building or leave their current position. Ready.gov recommends packing an earthquake kit with clothes, water, medication, a first aid kit, a hand-crank flashlight, batteries, cell phone charger, and other such items at the ready in your home or car case you need to leave. There are also apps like MyShake that could give you alerts and other information about earthquakes around your area through your mobile phone, too.

A man and a woman taking shelter under a wooden tableIf you're experiencing an earthquake, hide under a table away from any windows.Photo credit: Canva

It takes time and study to learn how the world around us works, which can take years if not lifetimes before we fully understand it. Even when we get better understanding, it might only provide more prep time for emergencies. Regardless of how much more understanding we obtain about earthquakes, there will always be the need to prepare and to be ready, for ourselves and for our neighbors.