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Carl Sagan's irrefutable 1990 argument for using all U.S. resources to fight climate change

He was way ahead of his time and his logic stands now.

via IslandPalm14/YouTube

Carl Sagan's keynote address at the 5th Emerging Issues Forum at NCSU.

Carl Sagan, the legendary astrophysicist and science communicator, was best known for his incredible ability to express complicated concepts in a way that the everyday person could understand. He did so most notably as host of PBS’s groundbreaking “Cosmos: A Personal Voyage" from 1980 to 1981.

Sagan was also a brilliant futurist who was way ahead of his time. In 1961, he predicted that the clouds of Venus might be home to life, an idea that has gained traction over the past few years. He also predicted many of America's current problems in 1995 and correctly claimed that one day AI would be used for psychotherapy back in the '70s.

He was also ahead of his time when sounding the alarm about Climate Change, evidenced by a 1990 speech he gave at the 5th Emerging Issues Forum. In the keynote address, he said that America should treat the climate crisis as seriously as it did the Cold War. Sagan’s speech was delivered a year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, which concluded the icy, 5-decade conflict between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

For some context, in 1990, only 30% of Americans were worried about global warming or the greenhouse effect. Today, 54% describe climate change as a “major threat” to the country’s well-being.

- YouTubeyoutu.be

“The amount of money that the United States has spent on the Cold War since 1945 is approximately 10 trillion dollars,” Sagan says, adding that with that amount of money, one could own everything in the country, minus the land.

“How certain was it that the Russians were going to invade? Was it 100% certain? Guess not since they never invaded. What if it was only, let’s say 10% certain? What would advocates of big military buildup have said? We must be prudent. It’s not enough to count on only the most likely circumstance," Sagan continues.

“I ask my friends who are comfortable with that argument, including the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal, why doesn’t that same argument apply to Global Warming? You don’t think it’s 100% likely? Fine. You are entitled to think that. If it’s only a small probability of it happening since the consequences are so serious, don’t you have to make some serious investment to prevent it or mitigate it? I think there’s a double standard of argument working and I don’t think we should permit it.”



Sagan would then list the steps we can take to mitigate the effects of climate change, including eliminating CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons), increasing fuel efficiency in cars and trucks, seeking out new alternative energy sources, dealing with the global population crisis and planting trees. "A tree is an engine for taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and it does it. It’s not the only thing a tree does, but that is one of the things that trees are good for and it's especially relevant to this issue,” Sagan says.

Sagan’s solutions are the same ones we discuss today, although fears of a global population crisis have waned over the years.

Sagan concluded his address by comparing the dangers of global warming to those faced by the U.S. during the Cold War and making an argument that many support today: fighting climate change is also good economic policy.

"So, what I say to those who complain that it is too uncertain–beyond pointing out the standards that were applied to the Cold War ought to be applied here–I say look, every one of these steps makes good sense, makes good economic sense,” Sagan says. “And think of all of the industries that are implied by what I have just said, especially alternative energy sources. There is money to be made in developing a technology which will appropriately address greenhouse warming."

You can watch the entire address here:

- YouTubewww.youtube.com

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In his last interview, Carl Sagan warned that America will be taken over by a 'charlatan' political leader

Sagan never would have believed in a fortune tellers but dang this is prescient.

via PBS

Astronomer Carl Sagan was the original host of "Cosmos" back in 1980 and it became most watched show in public television history. Few science communicators have been able to match his talent for stoking wonder about the universe.

Shortly before his death in 1996, he appeared on "Charlie Rose" and made a dire warning about how the average Americans' lack of skeptical, scientific thinking could lead to disastrous consequences.

Today, we can see the problems that are happening due to America's anti-science streak whether it's anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theories or climate change deniers.

Sagan was right, America will suffer due to a lack a lack of scientific skepticism.


Carl Sagan and Government_ Charlie Rose.wmvwww.youtube.com


"We've arranged a society on science and technology in which nobody understands anything about science and technology, and this combustible mixture of ignorance and power sooner or later is going to blow up in our faces," he told Rose. "I mean, who is running the science and technology in a democracy if the people don't know anything about it?"

He then warned that our lack of critical thinking leaves us vulnerable to those who wish to exploit our ignorance.

"Science is more than a body of knowledge, it's a way of thinking," he says. "If we are not able to ask skeptical questions to interrogate those who tell us something is true to be skeptical of those in authority, then we're up for grabs for the next charlatan political or religious who comes ambling along."

Sagan believes that a democracy cannot function without an educated populace.

"It's a thing that Jefferson lay great stress on. It wasn't enough, he said, to enshrine some rights in the Constitution and the Bill or Rights, the people had to be educated and they have to practice their skepticism and their education," he says. "Otherwise, we don't run the government, the government runs us."


This article originally appeared on 9.4.20

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Carl Sagan's future 'celebration of ignorance' prediction from 1995 was spookily spot on

"I have a foreboding of America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time…"

Images courtesy of NASA and Amazon

Carl Sagan published "The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark" in 1995.

As a participant in the Amazon Associates affiliate program, Upworthy may earn proceeds from items purchased that are linked to this article, at no additional cost to you.

Cosmologist and science educator Carl Sagan made a name for himself in popular culture as the host of the TV show "Cosmos" and the author of more than a dozen books bridging the gap between the scientific complexities of the world and the people who live in it. Intelligent and eloquent, he had a way of making science palatable for the average person, always advocating healthy scepticism and the scientific method to seek answers to questions about our world.

But Sagan also possessed a keen understanding of the broad array of human experience, which was part of what made him such a beloved communicator. He wrote about peace and justice and kindness in addition to science. He did not shun spirituality, as some sceptics do, but said he found science to be "a profound source of spirituality." He acknowledged that there's so much we don't know but was adamant about defending what we do.

Now, a quote from Sagan's 1995 book, "The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark," has people talking about his uncanny ability to peek into the future. His predictions didn't come through supernatural means, of course, but rather through his powers of observation and his understanding of human nature. Still pretty spooky, though.

He wrote:

“I have a foreboding of America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time–when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all of the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; with our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

And when the dumbing down of America is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30-second sound bites now down to 10 seconds or less, lowest-common-denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance.”

His words seem downright prophetic in an era where the least qualified people rise to the highest levels of power more and more often, people glom onto outlier voices that contradict broad scientific consensus on everything from climate change to public health, and social media sound bites fuel more and more extreme views devoid of nuance and complexity.

And the most frustrating part is that the people who get wrapped up in quacky conspiracy theories or take on radical stances based on illogical rhetoric don't see their own ignorance. They're told they're the ones thinking critically, they're the ones who are knowledgeable simply because they're questioning authority (as opposed to the "ability to…knowledgeably question those in authority" Sagan refers to, which is not the same thing).

“When we are self-indulgent and uncritical, when we confuse hopes and facts, we slide into pseudoscience and superstition," Sagan wrote. We watched this play out in the U.S. during the pandemic. We see it daily in our politics at either end of the spectrum. We witness it in social discourse, especially online. One thing Sagan didn't foresee was how ignorance, pseudoscience and superstition would be rewarded in today's world by algorithms that determine what we see in our social media feeds, creating a vicious cycle that can feel impossible to reverse sometimes.

However, Sagan also offered a hopeful reminder that people who fall prey to peddlers who push "alternative facts" for their own gain are simply human, with the same desire to understand our world that we all share. He warned against being critical without also being kind, to remember that being human doesn't come with an instruction manual or an innate understanding of how everything works.

“In the way that scepticism is sometimes applied to issues of public concern, there is a tendency to belittle, to condescend, to ignore the fact that, deluded or not, supporters of superstition and pseudoscience are human beings with real feelings, who, like the sceptics, are trying to figure out how the world works and what our role in it might be," he wrote. "Their motives are in many cases consonant with science. If their culture has not given them all the tools they need to pursue this great quest, let us temper our criticism with kindness. None of us comes fully equipped.”

Discerning truth from falsehood, fact from fiction, science from pseudoscience isn't always simple, and neither is the challenge of educating a populace to hone that ability. Taking a cue from Sagan, we can approach education with rigorous scientific standards but also with curiosity and wonder as well as kindness and humility. If he was right about the direction the U.S. was heading 30 years ago, perhaps he was right about the need for understanding what led to that direction and the tools needed to right the ship.

You can find much more in Sagan's "The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark" here.

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Watch Carl Sagan eloquently explain why books are the 'greatest of human inventions'

"A book is proof that humans are capable of working magic.”

via Planetary Society/Wikimedia Commons and Suzy Hazelwood/Pexels

Carl Sagan explains why books are magic.

Carl Sagan was one of the greatest scientific communicators of his generation because he had a knack for putting things into perspective. Whether explaining the vastness of the universe through the “pale blue dot” or how we are all made of star-stuff, Sagan was able to stoke feelings of wonder in everyday phenomena that we sometimes take for granted.

On episode 11 of his groundbreaking PBS show “Cosmos” in 1980, Sagan perused a library and explained why books and the libraries they call home are pure magic.

“What an astonishing thing a book is. It’s a flat object made from a tree with flexible parts on which are imprinted lots of funny dark squiggles. But one glance at it and you’re inside the mind of another person, maybe somebody dead for thousands of years,” Sagan explained.

“Across the millennia, an author is speaking clearly and silently inside your head, directly to you,” Sagan continued. “Writing is perhaps the greatest of human inventions, binding together people who never knew each other, citizens of distant epochs. Books break the shackles of time. A book is proof that humans are capable of working magic.”

Sagan goes on to ponder how human development would be stunted if humans only shared information by word of mouth. Great stories told by people in the past would slowly change over time until they eventually lost all meaning.

“A library connects us with the insights and knowledge of the greatest minds and the best teachers drawn from the whole planet and from all our history,” Sagan continues. “To instruct us without tiring and to inspire us to make our own contributions to the collective knowledge of the human species.”

"Libraries in ancient Egypt bore these words on their walls: 'Nourishment for the soul' and that's still a pretty fair assessment of what libraries provide," Sagan concluded the segment.

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