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If you look at years of Groundhog Day data, a scary trend emerges.

Groundhog Day is, unquestionably, America's favorite holiday.

Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images.

It can sometimes seem that, for millions of children and adults alike from Maine to Hawaii, the only day on the calendar that matters is February 2.

It's a day that seeks to answer the single most pressing question on our collective mind: Will winter end a little early, or just, like, at the normal time?

The magic of Groundhog Day harkens back to the late 19th century — a simpler time — when our nation's most sophisticated mode of climate modeling involved pulling a terrified rodent out of the ground and watching its facial expressions for about 45 seconds.

...and I'm about to ruin it.

Photo via iStock.

This gives me no pleasure (OK, a little bit of pleasure). But it needs to be said.

The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) pulled data for all the Groundhog Days since 1988. For each year, it tracked whether Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, and whether temperatures in February and March of that year were above or below average.

After just a cursory look at the results, two things become immediately clear:

1. Groundhog Day is completely useless as a predictor of whether spring will come early.

2. To the extent that the holiday contains any useful information whatsoever, Groundhog Day is actually a harbinger of planetary doom.

Let's take these one by one:

1. Turns out, Punxsutawney Phil pretty much always sees his shadow.

"Yeah, so I do lift." Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images.

Groundhog Day operates on a pretty simple premise: Phil sees his shadow, winter stays around for six more weeks. Phil doesn't see his shadow, winter goes away earlier than usual. You'd probably expect a roughly 50-50 split.

And you'd be wrong.

Between 1988 and 2016, the purportedly clairvoyant groundhog has taken an obvious gander at his own shadow 20 out of 29 years. If you go back to 1887, his record gets even worse. Since the very first Groundhog Day on record, Phil has seen his shadow 102 times, and not seen it only 18 times (there is no data for 10 of those years).

Groundhogs only live two to eight years on average, so this data tracks across dozens of Phils.

If, between the late '80s and today, we'd been dealt a series of solidly long winters, maybe you could make a case for Phil's psychic prowess. But that's the opposite of what's been happening.

And that's where the doom comes in.

2. In the last 28 years, regardless of whether Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, spring mostly just always comes early. And that's not a good sign.

Death is coming for us all. Photo by Kor!An/Wikimedia Commons.

We've had a warmer-than-average March 22 out of the last 29 years. Globally, as of 2016, March 2016 was the hottest March on record.

While there's no one on Earth who would say "no" to a St. Patrick's Day barbecue, the ruthless, relentless advance of spring is also a pretty stark illustration that climate change is real and getting worse.

In case you need to be reminded why that's scary, here's a pretty good 'n terrifying summary.

It's not the groundhog's fault. He's tried hard to see-his-shadow our way out of this. But it hasn't worked.

No, it can't. Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images.

Unfortunately, that means we have to do more of the heavy lifting. A lot of that is going to depend on our ability to meet the ambitious goals laid out in the landmark climate agreement that was signed in Paris in 2015, like limiting global temperature rise to "well-below" two degrees Celsius.

The problem is, for the countries that signed on, the commitment is voluntary.

Making sure we hold up our end of the bargain means electing politicians that not only believe in man-made climate change, but actually want to do something about it and pressuring them so that they actually do.

If we manage to accomplish that, Groundhog Day can go back to being what it was always meant to be: a silly holiday that doesn't mean a damn thing.

Photo by Archie Carpenter/Getty Images.

Not the kind of day you'd want to experience over and over and over again, but, you know, not bad for a day in February!

Family

Mom recalls the uncomfortable moment an older man complimented her 6-year-old's appearance

When she didn't say "thank you," he accused her of having bad manners.

@yourejustliz/TikTok

“Nice is different than kind."

It might have been pretty universally accepted during our childhood for daughters to be expected to reciprocate affection from adults, whether they liked it or not. A non consensual kiss to grandparents here, a forced “thank you” there. But times have changed.

However, this change in parenting style can sometimes make for some, well, awkward or even downright uncomfortable situations as moms and dads try to advocate for this kid’s autonomy.

Recently, a mom named Liz Kindred detailed just such an incident with her six year old daughter, which has a whole lotta other parents discussing how to navigate these unideal interactions.

As she recalls in a video posted to TikTok, Kindred was waiting in line with her daughter when a grown man turned around and said “My goodness, you sure are pretty” to the child.

“My six-year-old is gorgeous, yes, but she is also very in tune and perceptive, and she's an introvert so she grabbed my leg really tight,” Kindred said.

Doubling down, the man repeated himself, saying “You sure are pretty. Look at those blue eyes,” which only made her shy daughter grab her leg harder.

Noting that being in a 12 step program has taught her to be less “knee jerk reactionary,” the mom bit her tongue and offered a polite smile to the man, hoping that would be the end of it. It wasn’t.


@yourejustliz I need to get my brows done
♬ Succession (Theme Song) - The Theme System


“He's a boomer and, God love him, he said, ‘I guess your mom didn't teach you manners.’ And I let out an uncomfortable little [chuckle], and the pause was long. It was long. And under his breath he said, ‘Guess not,’” she said.

In what she called the most ”Jesus loving way” she could muster, while still bluntly making her point, Kindred told the man "If you assume that I didn't teach my six-year-old daughter to say ‘thank you’ to a grown, consenting man when he compliments her appearance, then you would be correct."

What followed was the “longest silence” of Kindred’s life.

The video, which has been viewed over 6 million times now, prompted a ton of parents to share how their own kids have established boundaries in similar situations—with their support, of course.

“An old man called my 4 yr old daughter a sweetheart at the store…she boldly responded ‘I am NOT YOUR sweetheart!’ I was so proud,” on person recalled.

Another added, “My 3 year old says ‘NO THANK YOU MY BODY DOESN’T LIKE TAHT.’”

Still another said “My 2 yo knows the boundaries song and just starts singing that anytime someone talks to her.”

While the response to Kindred’s video was overwhelmingly positive, there were a few comments defending the man as simply being “kind.” This prompted Kindred to do a follow-up video doubling down on her decision.

In the clip, she shared how she herself has dealt with seemingly innocent compliments in her life from men, which later turned into something else. Feeling like she “didn’t have a voice” to say something, “because I’m a nice Christian, Southern girl,” Kindred ended up being in unsavory situations (she didn't explicitly say what those situations were, but it's easy enough to piece together). She doesn’t want her daughter to have the same issues.


@yourejustliz #stitch with @Liz Kindred ♬ Succession (Theme Song) - The Theme System

“Nice is different than kind. The kind thing to do is to teach our daughters and our children in this next generation that when you are uncomfortable with something you listen to your body and you set a firm boundary with that and you provide language around that. And you start that really really young.”

Yep. Well said.


This article originally appeared on 8.8.24

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Viral OCD checklist with 'improvements' is hilarious — but there's more to the story.

OCD is a lot more than just "wanting things neat." But the checklist is still funny.

zenxii_/Reddit

The Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale

A user on Reddit recently posted an OCD symptom checklist given to them by a doctor. It's called the Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) and it includes dozens of symptoms and behaviors that can be associated with OCD. It's a helpful diagnostic tool that can help identify whether a person has OCD and how severe it might be.

However, after taking a closer look at the sheet, the OP just had to chuckle.

There's something deliciously ironic about the OCD checklist being absolutely riddled with spelling and formatting mistakes.

The original poster took it upon themselves to use their superpowers of neatness and exactitude to make a few... corrections.

"Behold the cruel checklist my doctor gave me to help identify my specific flavor of OCD. It had room for improvement," they wrote.

Note all the corrections made in red pen.

There are a lot of them!

zenxii_/Reddit

Of particular interest is the category called "Obsession with need for symmetry for exactness."

A section which, ironically, is not indented in the same way as the other category headings!

A few other errors on the sheet include:

  • Extra spaces between words
  • Poor line alignment
  • Missing and inconsistent punctuation
  • Inconsistent bolding and italicization
The document's formatting is so bad, you almost wonder if it was designed that way on purpose.

Users on Reddit got a lot of laughs out of the corrected checklist, to the tune of over 31,000 upvotes.

Of course, OCD is rarely about just "wanting things neat."

person washing hands in sink Photo by Curology on Unsplash

OCD has become a buzzword we throw around casually to describe anyone who is rigid in their thinking about certain things, or excessively tidy or clean.

("Sorry, I'm a little bit OCD about how I organize my desk.")

In reality, that's a stereotype that doesn't even begin to tell the whole story. "Exactness and symmetry" is just one of several categories on the Y-BOCS.

OCD is also characterized by these obsessions and compulsions becoming so intrusive they interfere with day to day life.

Other users in the thread chimed in with what OCD really looks like for them:

"I spent several years driving 10 minutes out of my way on a daily commute because I was afraid that if I drove over this specific bridge I was going to yeet myself off it. I had no intent to kill myself I was just terrified I was gonna do it," wrote one.

"I had an intrusive thought about stabbing the girl next to me in Spanish class with a pencil and I’m now I’m afraid to touch pencils so I can’t take notes," said another.

Another regularly worries about things like "staying awake all night because there might be a spider in my bedroom, and the spider will have babies on its back, and the babies will hatch and crawl into my mouth while I'm sleeping, and I'll suffocate and die. And then I'll go to the hell I don't believe in, because I killed the spiders."

Needless to say, people with OCD often get annoyed by the "neatness" trope which oversimplifies their disease.

However, the original poster took the criticism in stride. They're early on in their own diagnosis and discovery phase and just wanted to have a laugh to lighten the mood.

"I’m still new to my diagnosis and self-discovery within the lens of having OCD, so stepping on others’ toes or downplaying the condition was not intentional," the poster wrote. "My own OCD is not as simple as my edited page would suggest, I just posted this rather tongue-in-cheek. This page caused me some mild distress, but I also thought it hilarious that a checklist for OCD would be so rife with errors."

"My own condition is debilitating on a daily basis and doesn’t even encompass what the form made it look to be, but I didn’t quite feel the need to explain my medical journey."

It's important to have a sense of humor when things get tough. Gallows humor is the idea of using laughter to protect yourself from the stress and anxiety of a scary of even life-threatening situation. It's not everyone's style, but it's a legitimately effective coping mechanism.

As long as we can all agree that, yes, OCD is a lot more than just getting aggravated by typos — it's OK to chuckle at the sloppy medical form and OP's hilarious mark-ups. In fact, if we look past the corrections and actually read the form, we'll come away knowing way more about OCD than we did before!

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After learning I’m an empath, life makes so much more sense. Are you one, too?

There’s solid science behind the psychology.

via Pixabay

The many faces of an empath.

A few years ago I had an office job where I sat in a row of cubicles with about a dozen other people. One morning when a coworker walked into the office to start his day, a feeling of dread bubbled up from my subconscious. He was angry and I wasn’t going to be able to escape his feelings.

His desk was about 10 feet from mine and like waves, I could feel his emotions seeping into my body. He wasn’t bothering anyone and was always pleasant to me, but I knew he was angry about something deep down, and I could feel it.

As far as I knew, no one else in the office was having the same experience that I was. I was the only person who found it emotionally exhausting to be in the same room as this person.

I wasn’t sure what to make of this bizarre, unintentional attachment to the emotional states of others until I was listening to a podcast featuring Dr. Drew Pinksy where he mentioned that he was “an emotional sponge” who sucks up other people’s emotions and referred to it as being an “empath.”

That powerful revelation struck me in two ways. I realized that I was probably an empath as well and that I experience emotions differently than others. "One of the hardest things about being an empath is learning not everyone is,” Hannah Ewens at Vice wrote.

PsychAlive describes being an empath as exhausting at times, but not without its benefits.

“Empaths are highly sensitive individuals, who have a keen ability to sense what people around them are thinking and feeling. … often to the point of taking on the pain of others at their own expense,” PsychAlive says.

“On the bright side, empaths tend to be excellent friends,” PsychAlive continues. “They are superb listeners. They consistently show up for friends in times of need. They are big-hearted and generous. Empaths also tend to be highly intuitive and emotionally intelligent.”

via Pexels

As I started to look into the idea that I may be an empath, I began to consider the emotional sway my wife has over me. If she is stressed or tired, it makes me uncomfortable because I cannot escape her emotional state. It’s not that she’s overly emotional, but that I lack the force field that shields me from people’s emotional states, especially people close to me.

That’s why I get a huge feeling of relief when my wife transitions from being in a negative mood to a positive one. But, on the other hand, she doesn’t seem to be swayed one way or the other by my emotional state. It’s not that she’s callous, it’s just that she has a healthy emotional distance from me.

The problem is that it's nearly impossible to explain what this feels like to someone who isn’t an empath, and attempting to do so makes me seem a little unstable. So I keep these disturbances to myself, which probably isn’t healthy.

Caroline Van Kimmenade, who runs courses for empaths who want to understand their power, explained what it’s like to be an empath. "It's like a football match where everyone gets hyped up and starts waving and then the mob things start sweeping you up, and you barely know you're doing it," she explained.

"We can all experience that, but it doesn't mean you're an empath. But for an empath, it's that multiplied and applied to everything all of the time. Empaths are constantly in a giant football stadium where they're reacting to bigger things going on from all directions,” said Van Kimmenade.

When I realized I was an empath it helped me make sense of a part of myself that always felt contradictory. I am a person who has no problem being alone for long periods of time, but I’m also totally comfortable in social situations.

Tod Perry's solitary workspace.

via Upworthy

I work for Upworthy as a writer and the host of its podcast, “Upworthy Weekly,” and do it all from home. Honestly, I love being alone all day because I have a lot more power over my own emotional state than when I'm in an office getting bombarded by other people’s “stuff.”

I also enjoy going to movies, concerts and bars alone, too.

On the other hand, I am an extrovert who’s very comfortable in social situations. Empaths can be very social people because they have the superpower of being attuned to others' emotions and they have a great intuition for other people. We are experts at reading the room and are great at relating to all sorts of people.

Dr. Judith Orloff, the author of “The Empath’s Survival Guide: Life Strategies for Sensitive People,” says that extroverted empaths “crave the dopamine rush from lively events. In fact, they can’t get enough of it.”

One of the strangest things about being an empath is having a heightened sense of smell. My sense of smell is so keen that I can’t wear cologne because I never go nose blind to the scent and it’ll bother me the whole night. The same goes for scented lotions. The interesting thing is that this isn’t just in my head; researchers have found that the part of the brain that recognizes emotions overlaps with the brain areas associated with smell.

So what causes someone to be an empath?

“It can be both nature and nurture. Some empaths are born empaths the minute they come out of the womb they are these sensitive creatures feeling the world with the palm of their hands,” Dr. Orloff told Upworthy.

Dr. Orloff says that research shows empaths have different brain chemistry.

“Research is suggesting that the mirror neuron system in the brain is on overdrive with empaths—meaning their compassion is hyperactive versus narcissists who have hypo-active mirror neurons and empathy deficient disorder,” Orloff said.

Orloff adds that even though men and women are both empaths, it can be harder for men to come to terms with their sensitivity. She runs an empath support community where men are much more reluctant to share.

“When the men do share, they express the shame about being sensitive, how it isn't masculine and how they were bullied as children and made to feel ashamed to be crybabies rather than beautiful sensitive beings,” Orloff told Upworthy.

I had never heard of the term empath until about five years ago, but after coming to the realization that I probably am one and learning about the positive and negative aspects of this psychological trait, I feel that I’ve become better at navigating my emotional life. I'm getting better at seeing the difference between my emotions and those of others and making sense of the difference.

On the positive side, I’ve developed greater trust in my own intuition knowing that, as an empath, when I get a sense about someone, I should go with it because there’s a good chance I’m right. I’ve also learned to be less judgmental of those around me who I think aren’t as sensitive as they should be. They’re just not experiencing life the same way.


This article originally appeared 2 years ago.

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‘The World as 100 People’ gives us 6 great reasons to believe humanity is on the right track

Humanity is making amazing progress, but you won't hear it on the news.

via Unsplash

Life has really changed over the past 200 years.

It’s unfortunate that humans are wired to notice everything bad going on in the world and to ignore the things that are going right. Our collective negativity bias was illustrated in a 2016 survey that asked people in 17 countries “Do you think the world is getting better or worse, or neither getting better nor worse?”

Fifty‐eight percent of respondents thought that the world is getting worse, and 30% said that it is doing neither. Only 11% thought that things are getting better. However, there is a wealth of data to support the idea that the world is only improving when it comes to the hallmarks of human progress: education, freedom, poverty and health.

In a recent interview with Upworthy, Chelsea Follett, the managing editor at Human Progress, explained why humans have a bias toward negativity, and the media isn’t doing us any favors.

"Historically, obviously our ancestors in a primitive environment who overreacted to danger were more likely to survive than those who underreacted," Follett told Upworthy. "But there is a point where unwarranted panic can actually be detrimental to your survival if you abandon policies or institutions that are actually working, or that have allowed you to make tremendous progress in the past.

"There's also the nature of the media," she added. "Obviously sudden, noteworthy and rare events are the ones that make headlines, whereas long-term slow, steady, incremental progress is just not as interesting."

Our World in Data, an organization that performs "research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems" has created a revealing document that shows just how far humanity has come over the past 200 years. The graphs show how life has changed for a random sampling of 100 people over the past two centuries.

The graph covers six topics that are cornerstones of human progress: poverty, basic education, literacy, democracy, vaccination and child mortality.

Poverty

In 1820, 84 out of 100 people lived in extreme poverty, and over 200 years that number has dropped more than nine times to just 9 in 100. “The headline could be ‘The number of people in extreme poverty fell by 130,000 since yesterday’ and they wouldn’t have this headline once, but every single day since 1990, since, on average, there were 130,000 people fewer in extreme poverty every day,” Our World in Data wrote.

via Our World in Data

Basic Education

Two hundred years ago, 83 out of 100 people had no education at all. That number has been reduced to just 14 over the past 200 years.

Our World In Data says that number is only going to get better. “Focusing on the educational breakdown the projection suggests that by 2100, there will be almost no one without formal education and there will be more than 7 billion minds who will have received at least secondary education,” Our World in Data said.

via Our World in Data

Literacy

In 1820, only 12 people out of 100 could read. In 2019, that number has risen more than seven times to 86. These numbers will continue to rise because a large portion of the world’s illiterate population is older.

via Our World in Data

Democracy

Only 1 out of 100 people lived in a democracy back in 1820. Now, 56 out of 100 people live in a country where they can select their elected officials. This was a big change that came after World War II.

“In the second half of the 20th century, the world has changed significantly: Colonial empires ended, and more and more countries turned democratic,” Our World in Data wrote. “The share of the world population living in democracies increased continuously–particularly important was the breakdown of the Soviet Union which allowed more countries to democratize.”

via Our World in Data

Vaccination

Over the past 60 years, the number of people out of 100 that would have been vaccinated against diphtheria, whooping cough and tetanus has risen from 0 to 86.

via Our World in Data

Child Mortality

Can you imagine living at a time when almost half of all children born never lived to kindergarten age? “In 1800 the health conditions were such that around 43% of the world’s newborns died before their 5th birthday,” Our World In Data wrote. “In 2017 child mortality was down to 3.9% – 10-fold lower than 2 centuries ago.”

via Our World in Data

This article originally appeared two years ago.

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Some babies will turn into contortionists to avoid touching grass. Here's why.

Check out the little grass-averse gymnasts.

Photo by Natasha Ivanchikhina on Unsplash

Touch grass? Babies say, "Nope."

When you see a gymnast doing this, you know they've worked for years to train their muscles and perfect their gymnastics skills:

Martin Rulsch, Wikimedia Commons

But when you see a baby hovering in the air, legs in splits, you know there's probably a big ol' patch of grass beneath them.

Grass?!? you may be thinking. Seriously? Aren't babies, the purest among us—unspoiled by the trappings of modern life and technology—naturally drawn to the earth?

Apparently not if that earth is covered in grass, nope. For them, the lawn is lava.

Babies—or at least a good portion of babies—will do pretty much anything to not let any part of their bodies touch grass. Viral videos have demonstrated this fact, with parents holding their wee ones over a patch of lawn and lowering them toward the ground.

The way these tiny tots will twist themselves into gymnast-like positions to keep some daylight between them and the lawn is both impressive and hilarious. Watch:

You would think these parents were holding their kids above a pot of boiling oil, not the cool, refreshing grass. So what's happening here? Why are these babies so averse to touching grass?

According to neuropsychologist Dr. Sanam Hafeez, it could be an issue of sensory overload.

“Some babies lift their feet out in the air when a parent attempts to put them down on the grass because as a baby’s nervous system develops, sights, sensations, and sounds are intense,” Hafeez told Romper. “The ticklish, sharp blades of grass can catch a baby off guard, and some babies are often scared of it, as they are used to softer, more comfortable surfaces such as wood, tile, or carpet.”

Pediatrician Gina Posner, M.D offered Parents a similar explanation.

"The prickly texture and feel of grass is far different than softer and more comfortable feeling of carpet, tile, and wood surfaces on their feet, hands, and body, so babies are often scared of it." Grass can also be itchy and cause rashes, she said, which can make babies more averse to it.

Another explanation may be more innate and evolutionary. In a 2014 study published in Cognition, researchers reported evidence that "human infants possess strategies that would serve to protect them from dangers posed by plants."

"Across two experiments, infants as young as eight months exhibit greater reluctance to manually explore plants compared to other entities," the researchers shared. So perhaps babies simply don't trust grass.

According to another study published in 2019, there may be something to that distrust idea. Researchers found that babies between 8 and 18 months old "exhibited more social looking toward adults when confronted with plants compared to other object types." The study authors pointed out that learning about which plants are beneficial and which ones are harmful is something humans can't do alone, and noted that infants tended to look to older adults for social cues about plants they encounter before touching them.

"This social looking strategy puts infants in the best position to glean information from others before making contact with potentially dangerous plants," researchers wrote.

So, we have a few options here. Is it possible that those babies in the video weren't able to glean social cues from their caregivers that the grass was safe? Yes. Is it possible that they'd already touched grass once and found it too "tickly"? Yes. Is it possible that babies do all kinds of surprising, seemingly inexplicable things just to keep their parents guessing and always on their toes? Sure feels like it.

Whatever the reason, watching babies blatantly reject the "touch grass" advice the rest of us keep getting is hilarious. Who says the grown-ups know best? Trust your instincts and do you, babes.


This article originally appeared two years ago.

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