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If you look at years of Groundhog Day data, a scary trend emerges.

Groundhog Day is, unquestionably, America's favorite holiday.

Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images.

It can sometimes seem that, for millions of children and adults alike from Maine to Hawaii, the only day on the calendar that matters is February 2.

It's a day that seeks to answer the single most pressing question on our collective mind: Will winter end a little early, or just, like, at the normal time?

The magic of Groundhog Day harkens back to the late 19th century — a simpler time — when our nation's most sophisticated mode of climate modeling involved pulling a terrified rodent out of the ground and watching its facial expressions for about 45 seconds.

...and I'm about to ruin it.

Photo via iStock.

This gives me no pleasure (OK, a little bit of pleasure). But it needs to be said.

The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) pulled data for all the Groundhog Days since 1988. For each year, it tracked whether Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, and whether temperatures in February and March of that year were above or below average.

After just a cursory look at the results, two things become immediately clear:

1. Groundhog Day is completely useless as a predictor of whether spring will come early.

2. To the extent that the holiday contains any useful information whatsoever, Groundhog Day is actually a harbinger of planetary doom.

Let's take these one by one:

1. Turns out, Punxsutawney Phil pretty much always sees his shadow.

"Yeah, so I do lift." Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images.

Groundhog Day operates on a pretty simple premise: Phil sees his shadow, winter stays around for six more weeks. Phil doesn't see his shadow, winter goes away earlier than usual. You'd probably expect a roughly 50-50 split.

And you'd be wrong.

Between 1988 and 2016, the purportedly clairvoyant groundhog has taken an obvious gander at his own shadow 20 out of 29 years. If you go back to 1887, his record gets even worse. Since the very first Groundhog Day on record, Phil has seen his shadow 102 times, and not seen it only 18 times (there is no data for 10 of those years).

Groundhogs only live two to eight years on average, so this data tracks across dozens of Phils.

If, between the late '80s and today, we'd been dealt a series of solidly long winters, maybe you could make a case for Phil's psychic prowess. But that's the opposite of what's been happening.

And that's where the doom comes in.

2. In the last 28 years, regardless of whether Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, spring mostly just always comes early. And that's not a good sign.

Death is coming for us all. Photo by Kor!An/Wikimedia Commons.

We've had a warmer-than-average March 22 out of the last 29 years. Globally, as of 2016, March 2016 was the hottest March on record.

While there's no one on Earth who would say "no" to a St. Patrick's Day barbecue, the ruthless, relentless advance of spring is also a pretty stark illustration that climate change is real and getting worse.

In case you need to be reminded why that's scary, here's a pretty good 'n terrifying summary.

It's not the groundhog's fault. He's tried hard to see-his-shadow our way out of this. But it hasn't worked.

No, it can't. Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images.

Unfortunately, that means we have to do more of the heavy lifting. A lot of that is going to depend on our ability to meet the ambitious goals laid out in the landmark climate agreement that was signed in Paris in 2015, like limiting global temperature rise to "well-below" two degrees Celsius.

The problem is, for the countries that signed on, the commitment is voluntary.

Making sure we hold up our end of the bargain means electing politicians that not only believe in man-made climate change, but actually want to do something about it and pressuring them so that they actually do.

If we manage to accomplish that, Groundhog Day can go back to being what it was always meant to be: a silly holiday that doesn't mean a damn thing.

Photo by Archie Carpenter/Getty Images.

Not the kind of day you'd want to experience over and over and over again, but, you know, not bad for a day in February!

Subaru

Joy

5 things that made us smile this week

Grab your tissues and read some seriously good news.

Grab your tissues and get ready for some seriously good news.

True

After a harrowing election season, we could all use an emotional pick-me-up. Thankfully, the internet never fails to deliver. Check out five uplifting stories we’ve found that made us smile this week.

Enjoy—and don't forget to share the love!

1. This toddler's adorable reaction

@vita.paskar This is when things start to get exciting 🥹 when they begin to understand! #fyp #christmas #target #toddler ♬ Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee

Victoria Paskar’s son Ellis had just been born last December, so when it came to appreciating the magic of the holiday season, it wasn't something he was really able to do. This year, however, that’s changed: In an adorable TikTok video, Paskar caught the moment when Ellis (now a toddler) notices the lit-up trees and holiday decorations. So magical and pure in every way.

2. More meals for seniors in need

Subaru - Share the Love Event and Meals on Wheels

Hunger is a national problem, and one that Subaru is helping to fix. Thanks to the Subaru Share the Love Event, Subaru has delivered more than 4.6 million meals and friendly visits to seniors facing hunger and isolation. Since 2008, Subaru is the largest automotive donor to Meals on Wheels—and they’re just getting started. With every new Subaru sale, Subaru and its retailers donate at least $300 to charities like Meals on Wheels.

3. This five-year-old piano prodigy brings down the house with Mozart

Alberto Cartuccia Cingolani wows audiences with his amazing musical talents.Pianoforte/Facebook

A clip of a five-year-old performing at the 10th International Music Competition in Italy is now going viral, and it’s no surprise why. To little to even reach the pedals with his feet, Alberto Cartuccia Cingolani still wows the audience with a masterful performance of a Mozart piece. According to his mother, Alberto had participated in seven national and international music competitions and won first place in all of them, all by the time he was four and a half. It’s like he’s channeling Amadeus himself.

4. An adopted man reunites with his bio mom and forms a "sweet" connection

Lenore Lindsey and Vamarr HunterABC 7 / YouTube

When 50-year-old Vamarr Hunter decided to take a genealogy test to find his biological mother, he had no idea how close he had already been to finding her. After a genealogy test, Hunter discovered that his mother, Lenore Lindsey, who had given him up for adoption as an infant, was actually the owner of “Give Me Some Sugar” in South Shore Chicago—Hunter’s favorite bakery. The two experienced an “immediate connection” after meeting, and after Lindsey suffered a stroke, Hunter stepped in to manage the bakery full-time. No, you’re crying.

5. A teacher uses AI to inspire her classroom

See on Instagram

Now this is wholesome: An elementary teacher in Turkey named Gülümser Balci used artificial intelligence to create images of her students as their future selves in their dream jobs. Each kid is shocked and delighted to see themselves as adults, living out their dreams.

For more things that'll make you smile, check out all the ways Subaru is sharing the love this holiday season, here.

From Your Site Articles

uplifting

Fatherhood

People applauded after Mark Wahlberg confronted the DJ at his daughter's dance party

Dad to the rescue.

via TheEllenShow / YouTube

Mark Wahlberg on "The Ellen Show."

Four years ago, actor Mark Wahlberg attended a daddy-daughter dance with his then 10-year-old, Grace. Sadly, Grace had no interest in seeing her father strutting his stuff on the dance floor. "I didn't get one dance," Wahlberg told Ellen DeGeneres. "And I told her we were going to do the whole big circle and I was going to go off. And she said, 'Dad, if you embarrass me, I will never talk to you again.' But what she did do is she hung out with me."

No matter who your dad is, especially if you're a 10-year-old-girl, you have zero desire to see him dance in front of your friends. But the parents at the dance probably would have had a blast seeing Wahlberg bust out some of his old-school '90s Marky Mark moves. However, Wahlberg couldn't help but leave his mark on the music being played at the dance.

Let's not forget, he didn't get famous for his acting but for showing off his abs in the "Good Vibrations" video.

Being that Wahlberg's time as a pop star was three decades ago, he couldn't believe it when he heard the music being played at the dance.

"[Grace] sat there on the edge of the stage, by the DJ. And then I'm sitting there with one other dad and I'm like, 'This is not an edited version of this song. There are explicit lyrics being played at a school dance for girls and I'm like no good,'" he said.

"I told the DJ and he's like, 'Oh, I thought it was.' I said, 'What are you doing?' I'm hearing F-bombs and this and that's not okay," Wahlberg said.

He's right. There's no place for music with explicit lyrics at a dance for 10-year-old children.

Wahlberg says the DJ didn't know he wasn't playing the edited version, but it's probably more likely that he didn't even realize the song was a problem. Pop music these days is filled with a numbing amount of violent and misogynistic lyrics.

A recent study from the University of Missouri found that nearly one-third of pop songs contain lyrics that degrade or demean women by portraying them as submissive or sexually objectified.

Currently, three of the top five songs on the Billboard Top 40 contain the word "bitch." One of them is sung in Korean.

It's odd that Americans have become more sensitive to misogyny in pop culture in films, television, and comedy, but still have a huge cultural blind-spot when it comes to music.

That's not a good thing, especially when pop music is marketed to teenagers.

"We know that music has a strong impact on young people and how they view their role in society," said Cynthia Frisby, a professor in the Missouri School of Journalism.

"Unlike rap or hip-hop, pop music tends to have a bubbly, uplifting sound that is meant to draw listeners in," Frisby continued. "But that can be problematic if the lyrics beneath the sound are promoting violence and misogynistic behavior."

Let's face it, pop stars are role models. Their examples show young people what to wear and how to behave. That's not to say that kids will blindly follow someone just because they like their music. But it has an undeniable effect.

Wahlberg, and any parent who monitors what their kids are listening to, deserve credit for protecting the minds and hearts of their kids.

Frisby has some great advice for parents concerned about negative imagery in pop music.

"Ask your daughters and sons what songs they like to listen to and have conversations about how the songs might impact their identity," Frisby said.

"For example, many songs might make young girls feel like they have to look and act provocative in order to get a boy to like them, when that isn't necessarily the case. If children and teens understand that what they are hearing isn't healthy behavior, then they might be more likely to challenge what they hear on the radio."