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The reassuring math explaining COVID hospitalization percentages for vaccinated people

The reassuring math explaining COVID hospitalization percentages for vaccinated people
Lucy D'Agostino McGowan/Twitter

As if dealing with an ever-changing understanding of the novel coronavirus over the past year and a half hasn't been enough, we've also had to try to understand the math behind the data analysis, which for some of us (hi, English major here) is a nightmare.

It's vitally important that we understand these numbers, though, because misinformation peddlers are using them to push misconceptions about vaccines. And even though the math isn't actually that complicated, those of us who aren't particularly mathematically inclined may read headlines like "50% of COVID patients in XX hospital are fully vaccinated" and find ourselves alarmed. Wasn't the vaccine supposed to prevent hospitalizations? If half of the people in the hospital are vaccinated, doesn't that mean the vaccine makes no difference?

Well, no. That's not at all what it means, and here's why. It's all about the denominators.

On a super basic level: 2 = 2, but 2 out of 20 is not the same as 2 out of 80. If 4 people are hospitalized, 2 vaccinated and 2 not vaccinated, in an area with an 80% vaccination rate, it's not a meaningful measurement to say that half of the hospitalizations are in vaccinated people. Your chances of hospitalization with the vaccination are significantly lower because of the denominator.

Biostatistician Lucy D'Agostino McGowan simplified why the percent vaccinated in hospitalizations numbers aren't as scary as they sound with some helpful visuals in a Twitter thread.


The director of the Maine CDC, Nirav D. Shah, gave an even more thorough explanation for those who actually want to wade a little deeper into the statistical waters.

He wrote:

"It's important to consider the full picture when interpreting data on things like the % of people fully vaccinated who are hospitalized with #COVID19, or the fact that 74% of the cases in the P-town outbreak were fully vaccinated.

I have seen folks express concern upon learning, for example, that 45% of people hospitalized w/COVID19 are vaccinated.

"But I thought the vaccine keeps you out of the hospital? Is this evidence that vaccines aren't working?" No, it is not. I'll walk through why here.

First, some basic assumptions. There are two Worlds, each with 1M people. And we'll consider the same infectious disease affecting each World, with the parameters below.

There is also a vaccine, with the effectiveness parameters noted below. These could all be changed.In World 1, 50% of the population has been vaccinated against the disease. Out of the 1M people, there are 30,000 infections and 2525 hospitalizations.

Among vaccinated folks, 25 end up in the hospital. The other 2500 hospitalized are UNvaccinated.World 2 is different: 90% of the population is vaccinated.

Here, there are only 14,000 cases. And only 545 people are hospitalized in total.

BUT, 45 of the hospitalized are vaccinated! Compare that with only 25 vaccinated folks in the hospital in World 1.What is going on?

How could it be that, in a World with 90% of the population vaccinated, 20 *more* vaccinated people are hospitalized with the disease (45 vs. 25?)? Is the vaccine not working in World 2?

It's important to compare World 1 and World 2 side by side.

First, note that the case rate in World 2 (90% vaccinated) is far lower than in World 1 (50%). The vaccine is working.

Second, the hospitalization RATE is also far lower in World 2: 545/million vs. 2525/mil.But because there are simply more vaccinated people in World 2, something that affects them at the same rate as others (hospitalization) will generate more cases, numerically.

Indeed, the % of all hospitalized who are fully vaccinated is HIGHER in World 2 than in World 1.In World 2 (90%), 8.25% of all those in the hospital are vaccinated. But in World 1 (50%), it's only 1%!

This is NOT evidence that the vaccines are ineffective. It is a function of the fact that there are simply more vaccinated folks in World 2 relative to unvaccinated.

The question to ask yourself is this: which world would you rather be in?

For that, you would look to the hospitalization rate: 545 vs. 2525/million. World 2, with its higher vaccination rate, is preferable, given that it experiences 1980 fewer hospitalizations. In World 1, fewer people are vaccinated, so their rate of hospitalization is just lower.

Where else does this (common) phenomenon occur?

For a stark example, consider this: what % of skydiving accidents occur in people who were wearing a parachute? Probably 100%.

Are parachutes not effective? They are. But the baseline rate of parachute wearing among those who sky dive is 100%.

Another example: what percentage of fatal car accidents occur in people who were wearing a seat belt? It's about 52%.

Does that mean the effectiveness of seat belts is a coin flip? No, the baseline rate matters. Seat belt usage is around 85%. As with so many things, where you end up depends on the baseline rate of where you started.

Lots of vaccinated folks are being hospitalized with COVID because there are a growing number of vaccinated folks. But the RATE of total hospitalizations is going down. That's good. Similarly, in P-town, 74% (346) of the cases were among vaccinated folks.

But there, what percentage of folks were vaccinated vs. unvaccinated? If the baseline rate of vaccinated was sky high, then this finding is entirely predictable. This is a common theme in epidemiology and statistics. Once you know to look for it, it jumps out all over the place. But without the context around background rates, denominators, etc., it's easy to scare yourself and make incorrect decisions.

Another example: imagine World 3, also with 1M people. 999,999 are vaccinated.

Two cases of COVID occur. One in the unvaccinated person. The other in a vaccinated person.

So 50% of new COVID cases are in the vaccinated. Really? Yes, but deceiving. Denominators matter."

Denominators matter. Even those of us who aren't mathematicians or statisticians can understand that, but we do need media reports to be clear about it; otherwise, we end up with people believing that the vaccines don't do much.

We also need to remember that data is always being gathered and that our understanding of this virus, the vaccines, and how best to balance safety measures and other needs will continue to evolve. The constant shifts are hard, but such is the nature of a novel viral pandemic, and it looks like we're still going to be in it for a while.


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Visit Sweden
Visit Sweden
Education

Sweden makes stunning decision to trademark its name to avoid confusion

The country is taking historic steps to fix the problem.

via Visit Sweden (used with permission)

A Swedish woman taking things into her own hands.

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Sweden has existed for over 1,000 years, but travelers across the globe are confused because other places, inspired by the country’s untouched beauty and joyously inclusive culture, have taken its name.

Seven other places in the world call themselves Sweden, so to distinguish itself from the name-alikes, the Kingdom of Sweden is taking a bold, historic step that no country has before. It’s become the first to apply to trademark its name with the European Union Intellectual Property Office.

Visit Sweden likens the country’s problem to a luxury brand that has to contend with dupes, knockoffs, or bootlegs that fall short of the glory of the genuine article.

“It’s flattering that other places want to be called Sweden, but let’s be honest, there should only be one. Our Sweden. The one with the Northern Lights, endless forests, and the world’s best flat-pack furniture,” says Susanne Andersson, CEO at Visit Sweden.

- YouTubewww.youtube.com

By trademarking its name, Sweden will make things much less confusing for travelers worldwide. It’d be a shame for someone looking to visit Sweden’s majestic Lapland to mistakenly wind up in a place with no reindeer, Aurora Borealis, or cloudberries to be found.

The world-class research team at Visit Sweden knew it had to act when it realized that other destinations with the same name had tripped up travelers. People looking to vacation in Portland, Oregon, have accidentally wound up in Portland, Maine. Travelers yearning to experience the fall in Manchester, New Hampshire, have been deplaning in Manchester, England. “It happens more than you think!” the researchers admitted.


sweden, visit sweden, swedish vacation The Northern Lights in Sweden. via Visit Sweden, Photographer: Jann Lipka/imagebank.sweden.se

The E.U. Intellectual Property Office must act swiftly and allow Sweden to trademark its name so that travelers worldwide don’t miss the opportunity to experience an utterly unique country known for its serene landscapes, commitment to deep relaxation and personal freedom.

No one should ever miss out on staying on one of Sweden’s 267,570 islands, more than any other country. The Swedish archipelagos offer luxurious glamping, peaceful hikes, tranquil solitude and awe-inspiring, pristine nature.

sweden, visit sweden, swedish vacation A woman camping in the Swedish archipelago.via Visit Sweden, Photographer: Anders Klapp/imagebank.sweden.se


Sweden is a beautiful place to visit all year round, with bright summers, colorful falls, vibrant springs and dark, crisp winters. It is also a place to delight your tastebuds with a cuisine centered on healthy, locally sourced produce, with some preparation methods dating back to the Viking era.

The original Sweden is a place where one can relish Old World European history while also enjoying the modern pleasures of the most progressive countries in the world. Travelers can be whisked back into history by visiting the Naval Port of Karlskona, a well-preserved European naval town from 1680. Or, enjoy cutting-edge design, delicacies, art, music and culture in hip metropolitan destinations such as Stockholm or Sweden’s “coolest city,” Gothenburg.

Did we mention Sweden has an ABBA museum? Wait till the other 7 Swedens find out about that.

As you can see, Sweden is an incredibly unique destination that cannot be duplicated. It would be a tragedy for anyone intending to visit the original Sweden to mistakenly find themselves in a name-alike place that lacks its Scandinavian charm. You can do your part to stop the confusion by signing a petition to let Sweden trademark Sweden at Visit Sweden (the original).

sweden, visit sweden, swedish vacation A Swedish Midsommar celebration. via Visit Sweden, Photographer: Stefan Berg/Folio/imagebank.sweden.se

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Innovation

Astronaut shares the profound 'big lie' he realized after seeing the Earth from space

This change in perspective could change humanity.

via Rubén Moreno Montolíu/Flickr

Our home, from space.

Sixty-one years ago, Yuri Gagarin became the first human to make it into space and probably the first to experience what scientists now call the "overview effect." This change occurs when people see the world from far above and notice that it’s a place where “borders are invisible, where racial, religious and economic strife are nowhere to be seen.”

The overview effect makes man’s squabbles with one another seem incredibly petty and presents the planet as it truly is, one interconnected organism.

In a compelling interview with Big Think, astronaut, author and humanitarian Ron Garan explains how if more of us developed this planetary perspective we could fix much of what ails humanity and the planet.

Garan has spent 178 days in space and traveled more than 71 million miles in 2,842 orbits. From high above, he realized that the planet is a lot more fragile than he thought.

“When I looked out the window of the International Space Station, I saw the paparazzi-like flashes of lightning storms, I saw dancing curtains of auroras that seemed so close it was as if we could reach out and touch them. And I saw the unbelievable thinness of our planet's atmosphere. In that moment, I was hit with the sobering realization that that paper-thin layer keeps every living thing on our planet alive,” Garan said in the video.

“I saw an iridescent biosphere teeming with life,” he continues. “I didn't see the economy. But since our human-made systems treat everything, including the very life-support systems of our planet, as the wholly owned subsidiary of the global economy, it's obvious from the vantage point of space that we're living a lie.”

It was at that moment he realized that humanity needs to reevaluate its priorities.

“We need to move from thinking economy, society, planet to planet, society, economy. That's when we're going to continue our evolutionary process,” he added.

Garan says that we are paying a very “high price” as a civilization for our inability to develop a more planetary perspective and that it’s a big reason why we’re failing to solve many of our problems. Even though our economic activity may improve quality of life on one end, it’s also disasterous for the planet that sustains our lives.

It’s like cutting off our nose to spite our face.

Actor William Shatner had a similar experience to Garan's when he traveled into space.

"It was among the strongest feelings of grief I have ever encountered," Shatner wrote. "The contrast between the vicious coldness of space and the warm nurturing of Earth below filled me with overwhelming sadness. Every day, we are confronted with the knowledge of further destruction of Earth at our hands: the extinction of animal species, of flora and fauna … things that took five billion years to evolve, and suddenly we will never see them again because of the interference of mankind."

“We're not going to have peace on Earth until we recognize the basic fact of the interrelated structure of all reality,” Garan said.

However dire the situation looks from the surface of Earth, the astronaut has hope that we can collectively evolve in consciousness and wake up and embrace a larger reality. “And when we can evolve beyond a two-dimensional us versus them mindset, and embrace the true multi-dimensional reality of the universe that we live in, that's when we're going to no longer be floating in darkness … and it's a future that we would all want to be a part of. That's our true calling.”


This article originally appeared two years ago.

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Cycle for Survival
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How can riding a bike help beat cancer? Just ask Reid Moritz, 10-year-old survivor and leader of his own “wolfpack”

Every year, Reid and his pack participate in Cycle for Survival to help raise money for the rare cancer research that’s helped him and so many others. You can too.

all photos courtesy of Reid Moritz

Together, let’s help fuel the next big breakthrough in cancer research

True

There are many things that ten-year-old Reid Wolf Moritz loves. His family, making watches (yes, really), basketball, cars (especially Ferraris), collecting super, ultra-rare Pokémon cards…and putting the pedal to the medal at Cycle for Survival.

Cycle for Survival is the official rare cancer fundraising program of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSK). One hundred percent of every dollar raised at Cycle for Survival events supports rare cancer research and lifesaving clinical trials at MSK.

At only two years old, Reid was diagnosed with pilocytic astrocytoma, a rare type of brain tumor.

Pediatric cancer research is severely underfunded. When standard treatments don't work, families rely on breakthrough clinical trials to give their children a real shot at long-term survival.

When Reid’s chemotherapy and brain surgery didn’t work, he was able to participate in one of MSK’s clinical trials, where he’s received some incredible results. “Memorial Sloan Kettering has done so much for me. It's just so nice how they did all this for me. They're just the best hospital ever,” Reid recalls.

And that’s why every year, you’ll find Reid with his team, aptly named Reid's Wolfpack, riding at Cycle for Survival. It’s just Reid’s way of paying it forward so that even more kids can have similar opportunities.

“I love sharing my story to inspire other kids to PERSEVERE, STAY STRONG and NEVER GIVE UP while also raising money for my amazing doctors and researchers to help other kids like me.”

Reid remembers the joy felt bouncing on his father’s shoulder and hearing the crowd cheer during his first Cycle for Survival ride. As he can attest, each fundraising event feels more like a party, with plenty of dancing, singing and celebrating.

Hoping to spread more of that positivity, Reid and his family started the Cycle for Survival team, Reid’s Wolfpack, which has raised close to $750,000 over the past eight years. All that money goes directly to Reid’s Neuro-Oncology team at Memorial Sloan Kettering.

In addition to cheering on participants and raising good vibes at Cycle for Survival events, Reid even designs some pretty epic looking merch—like basketball shorts, jerseys, and hoodies—to help raise money.

If you’re looking to help kids just like Reid, and have a ton of fun doing it, you’re in luck. Cycle for Survival events are held at Equinox locations nationwide, and welcome experienced riders and complete newbies alike. You can even join Reid and his Wolfpack in select cities!

And if cycling in any form isn’t your thing, a little donation really does go a long way.

Together, let’s help fuel the next big breakthrough in cancer research. Find out more information by checking out cycleforsurvival.org or filling out this interest form.

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Education

Listen to famous Victorians having a ball recording their voices for the very first time

Getting drunk and speaking into a phonograph used to be prime entertainment.

AI generated image/Photo credit: Canva, Levin C. Handy/Wikipedia

It's so cool to listen to them ponder a future that would become our present.

The latter part of the Victorian era brought us the invention of photography, and along with it a more realistic—though not completely accurate—glimpse into what life of the time period looked like. And yet, the same can’t be said for what 19th century folks sounded like.

While technically the first recording of a human voice did happen in 1860 (very early on in the Victorian era), it wouldn’t be until the 1880s, when Thomas Edison perfected the technology with his new-and-improved wax cylinder phonograph, that voice recording would become more of a commonplace concept.

In a video created by Kings and Things, we are thrust back in time to when this device made its debut, and subsequently captured the voice of many Victorian era icons. During an evening soirée held in London, George Gouraud, an American employee of Edison, decided to delight his guests by inviting them to record their own personalized message to Edison.

This novel form of entertainment would always start the same way—Gouraud would first toast the guest before prompting them to speak. Needless to say, things would quite quickly turn into drunken fun.

- YouTubewww.youtube.com

But there was also a bit of unintentional foreshadowing that came about. Composer Sir Arthur Sullivan, for example, all but predicted the kind of impact this technology would have on music.

"For myself I can only say that I am astonished and somewhat terrified at the results of this evening's experiments: astonished at the wonderful power you have developed, and terrified at the thought that so much hideous and bad music may be put on record forever,” he said.

Gouraud would hold many demonstrations of the phonograph, both at his home in London and at other social events with elite guests, hoping to record the “voices of the great of all nations, to include alike someday the voices of the living and the dead” so that they might be available for future generations.

Getting that kind of extensive archive, however, wasn’t always easy. Even today, many of us get choked up at the thought of talking on the telephone. The nerves were understandably similar, if not worse, for Victorians not only interacting with a daunting device for the first time, but also the concept of their voice being immortalized.

“It is curious to see how the most distinguished speakers behave when they find themselves in front of the photograph and speak into it,” Gouraud noted. Even the famously confident stage actor Sir Henry Irving apparently became "frightened out of his own voice.”

Eventually other “recordists” were brought on to replicate Gouraud’s work of demonstrating the phonograph. And one of them recorded one of the most well known and influential Victorians of them all, the founder of modern nursing herself—Florence Nightingale.

Here’s what the Lady with the Lamp had to say:

“When I am no longer even a memory, just a name, I hope my voice may perpetuate the great work of my life.”

Other notable recordings include politician William Gladstone and Queen Victoria herself—though her recording was replayed to the point of damaging the quality, and it’s hard to accurately detect whose voice it might belong to. It would be much, much later that any of the recordings could be replayed without any degradation.

This entire video is a great reminder that while we might not ever be able to truly time travel (although here’s hoping!) , that doesn't mean we won’t continue finding new ways to experience the past. It’s also interesting to think what folks a hundred years from now will think of the many, many questionable recordings of ourselves that will live on forever via the internet.

Check out more of Kings and Things' content here.

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Parenting

Psychologist shares 15-second trick to make kids of any age less rude and more cooperative

All it takes is a single question.

via Hunter Johnson/Unsplash

A child being rude.

Sometimes, it can feel like half of parenting is repeating yourself over and over again, asking your child to brush their teeth or take a dish from the living room to the sink. It’s exhausting and makes you feel like a nag. Don't you wish there was a simple way to make your kids listen the first time?

Dr. Rebecca Kennedy, aka “Dr. Becky,” is a clinical psychologist and founder and CEO of Good Inside who says she has a quick way to make your kids more cooperative and less rude. Talk about killing two soul-crushing birds with one parenting stone. Dr. Beckly got into psychology after growing up with anorexia as a teenager.

“Okay, no matter how old your kid is, you can use this 15-second tip to decrease rudeness and increase cooperation,” she says in a TikTok video with over 32,000 views. “Find your child today and ask them this question. 'Hey, I was just wondering, what could I do better as your parent?'”

The psychologist says that even if the child has a random or impractical answer such as “Let me stay up ‘til midnight” or “I’d like to eat macaroni and cheese for breakfast, lunch and dinner,” just to listen. Simply by listening, you can change your child’s behavior.

She says we should also ask more questions to further the conversation: “Tell me more. What would that be like?”

Want to improve your relationship with your kid in less than 15 seconds? Watch this reel for a quick-win strategy. 

@drbeckyatgoodinside

Want to improve your relationship with your kid in less than 15 seconds? Watch this reel for a quick-win strategy. The best part: When we use strategies like this in calm moments, we reduce the frequency of difficult moments with our kids. Of course, I’m a realist… I know you need in-the-moment strategies too! Cue: My Conquering Problem Behaviors Workshop. You’ll get an entire toolbox of in-the-moment and outside-the-moment strategies for reducing outbursts and strengthening your bond with your kid. Learn more in the link in bio!

“I mean, imagine your boss coming to you randomly and asking how they could be a better manager to you. Just by asking the question and listening,” she continued. Dr. Becky says that asking our kids how we’re doing as parents communicates three essential ideas: “I care about you. I respect you. I'm invested in this relationship.”

This type of questioning builds a connection with a child that can spill over into other behaviors. “You're building connection. And with more connection always comes more cooperation,” she ends the video.

The big takeaway from the video is that when we enhance our connection with our kids, they will be less likely to disobey or be rude because they feel heard and respected, so there’s no need to act out. They will also return that respect by listening to you when you have a request, such as taking out the trash or putting down their phone and coming to dinner.

Some people in the comments got funny responses when they asked their kids what they could improve. “I asked my 5yr old. I got a mildly scathing look and she said ‘erm, maybe try and burn dinner less next time?’” Collette wrote. “My 5 yo told me to look better and get a haircut,” Mark Amend added.

Dr. Becky’s quick question is a great way for parents to strengthen their relationships when things are going well instead of trying to forge connections during conflict. It’s a great reminder that even when parenting, an ounce of prevention is a pound of cure.

Dr. Becky sums up the importance of prevention in her TikTok caption: “When we use strategies like this in calm moments, we reduce the frequency of difficult moments with our kids,” she wrote.


This article originally appeared in June.

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Parenting

What do you keep in your ‘car kit?’ Parents reveal surprisingly practical must have items

An ice cream bucket with a lid.

Photo credit: Canva

Parents reveal 'must have' items to keep in your 'car kit'

Once you have a baby it doesn't take long for you to realize that you're no longer able to just quickly leave the house. There are a million and one things you have to toss into a bag before you can even grab the baby and head out the door. Eventually the diaper bag is down to a science where certain things just "live" in the bag after months of experience learning the most needed items.

But kids don't need diaper bags forever. They eventually eat without spitting up, no longer need a binky or their extra lovey to carry with them everywhere. So the bag gets a little smaller until you realize, bigger kids still need a bunch of crap that is infrequent enough that you can leave it in the car but frequent enough that you can't leave it at home. That's when you graduate from the diaper bag or toddler backpack to having a parenting "car kit."

A parenting car kit contains all the essentials that your child might need while in the car for road trips and trips around town. Since every kid and family are different most car kits will be different but there are a few common items that parents swear by on keeping handy. If you're a newer parent just heading into that in between age of not quite toddler but not quite preschooler, you may want to grab a pen to jot down some ideas if you don't already ave a car kit packed.

Start with the essentials

Depending on the type of car you have, you may want to use a tote bag, small duffle bag or a shallow plastic tote to keep everything contained. Since the kit's permanent home will be in your vehicle it should be in a container that is not in the way but is large enough to fit your needs. Aside from something to put the items in, the most common item to keep inside it is a first aid kit, which can be restocked as needed. Other parents on weighed in on what they felt like were important must haves to keep on hand.

brown duffel bag beside white and brown wooden chair Photo by Erol Ahmed on Unsplash

Car sickness and stomach bugs happen so it's better to be prepared

Vomit happens when you have kids, so several parents insist on keeping items in your car to make your life a little easier. One parent writes, "We use an ice cream bucket (and have a lid in case we have to use it). My kids get sick way too often, so we also keep an extra change of clothes for both, disinfecting wipes, Febreeze, soap to clean the bucket in a bathroom sink."

Other parents suggested gallon Ziploc bags or the vomit bags in the back of airplane seats but instead of...borrowing them from an airline, someone suggests ordering them online, "We learned the hard way. You can order them on Amazon, they're not expensive, and they're worth every dime when you're not cleaning vomit out of your car vents with a toothbrush."

vomiting season 21 GIF by The BachelorGiphy

Don't forget the changing seasons and extra shoes and...more

One mom shares that she swaps out clothes depending on the season and is sure to keep a spare pair of shoes, "I have a toddler, I keep....Change of clothes, cheap flipflops for spare shoes, I rotate out summer/winter things (sunscreen/hat/bubbles/bathing suit/towel and winter hat/gloves/sweater/snowpants), books (Especially I-spy books), bandaid's, wet wipes, chalk, extra little cheap toys/entertainment encase stuck in traffic for a long time (have previously been stuck in traffic 4 hours because there was an accident on the hwy. I learned my lesson, bring things to entertain the child.), coloring book/crayons, extra blankets, inflatable ball to play pass with, toilet paper, fold out potty."

Schitts Creek Comedy GIF by CBCGiphy

Picture it, the theme is wet wipes

If you were curious if parents thought you needed wet wipes, you can't stop worrying because they do. They say you need all of the wet wipes or baby wipes. "Baby wipes, no matter how old they are. Towel, hair brush, 1st aid kit, spare clothes for all of us, pocket knife, coloring books, crayons, regular books, and a gallon ziplock filled with old party favor extras in case of emergency," one parent says.

Another parent writes, "My youngest is 10 and our eldest is 25. Is still always have baby wipes. Super convenient!" While someone else shares, "Mine are 3 and 5 year old boys. I have a pack of wipes (you ALWAYS need wipes), change of clothes for both kids, emergency portable potty, and two empty metal water bottles (because we often go on spontaneous adventures and we sometimes buy drinks that they want to split)."

Happy Wipes GIF by Huggies BrandGiphy

Or you can opt out

Not all parents are interested in keeping extra things in their car for "just in case." Just like all car kits are individual to each family, so is the need for one. Some kids are excellent in cars, never getting car sick or having accidents, while others require more, with one parent saying, "I’m baffled by this 'parent kit' stuff. Like my kid is 9 and we’ve survived a lot without most of this stuff."

Several parents share that they prefer not having additional things in their car and it has worked out fine while others explain that they didn't think to keep things in their car and other parents saved them in a pinch from their own car kits.

"These had never crossed my mind before. And then, when he was 2, my son suddenly threw up as I was carrying him into a restaurant and this random mom was immediately at my side with vomit bags and wipes. That woman is still my hero and I now always have an extra vomit bag in the car at a minimum," one person says.

Parenting is such an individual thing that heavily depends on your child's personality and physical needs. But if you do have a car kit or want to make one, it might just be you who is coming to the rescue of a flustered mom still learning what her child needs available while in the car.

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Science

Carl Sagan's irrefutable 1990 argument for using all U.S. resources to fight climate change

He was way ahead of his time and his logic stands now.

via IslandPalm14/YouTube

Carl Sagan's keynote address at the 5th Emerging Issues Forum at NCSU.

Carl Sagan, the legendary astrophysicist and science communicator, was best known for his incredible ability to express complicated concepts in a way that the everyday person could understand. He did so most notably as host of PBS’s groundbreaking “Cosmos: A Personal Voyage" from 1980 to 1981.

Sagan was also a brilliant futurist who was way ahead of his time. In 1961, he predicted that the clouds of Venus might be home to life, an idea that has gained traction over the past few years. He also predicted many of America's current problems in 1995 and correctly claimed that one day AI would be used for psychotherapy back in the '70s.

He was also ahead of his time when sounding the alarm about Climate Change, evidenced by a 1990 speech he gave at the 5th Emerging Issues Forum. In the keynote address, he said that America should treat the climate crisis as seriously as it did the Cold War. Sagan’s speech was delivered a year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, which concluded the icy, 5-decade conflict between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

For some context, in 1990, only 30% of Americans were worried about global warming or the greenhouse effect. Today, 54% describe climate change as a “major threat” to the country’s well-being.

- YouTubeyoutu.be

“The amount of money that the United States has spent on the Cold War since 1945 is approximately 10 trillion dollars,” Sagan says, adding that with that amount of money, one could own everything in the country, minus the land.

“How certain was it that the Russians were going to invade? Was it 100% certain? Guess not since they never invaded. What if it was only, let’s say 10% certain? What would advocates of big military buildup have said? We must be prudent. It’s not enough to count on only the most likely circumstance," Sagan continues.

“I ask my friends who are comfortable with that argument, including the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal, why doesn’t that same argument apply to Global Warming? You don’t think it’s 100% likely? Fine. You are entitled to think that. If it’s only a small probability of it happening since the consequences are so serious, don’t you have to make some serious investment to prevent it or mitigate it? I think there’s a double standard of argument working and I don’t think we should permit it.”



Sagan would then list the steps we can take to mitigate the effects of climate change, including eliminating CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons), increasing fuel efficiency in cars and trucks, seeking out new alternative energy sources, dealing with the global population crisis and planting trees. "A tree is an engine for taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and it does it. It’s not the only thing a tree does, but that is one of the things that trees are good for and it's especially relevant to this issue,” Sagan says.

Sagan’s solutions are the same ones we discuss today, although fears of a global population crisis have waned over the years.

Sagan concluded his address by comparing the dangers of global warming to those faced by the U.S. during the Cold War and making an argument that many support today: fighting climate change is also good economic policy.

"So, what I say to those who complain that it is too uncertain–beyond pointing out the standards that were applied to the Cold War ought to be applied here–I say look, every one of these steps makes good sense, makes good economic sense,” Sagan says. “And think of all of the industries that are implied by what I have just said, especially alternative energy sources. There is money to be made in developing a technology which will appropriately address greenhouse warming."

You can watch the entire address here:

- YouTubewww.youtube.com

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