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People are comparing COVID-19 deaths to the flu. Here's why it doesn't work.

People are comparing COVID-19 deaths to the flu. Here's why it doesn't work.
Photo by Fusion Medical Animation on Unsplash

As countries around the world pay rapt attention to the rising number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths from COVID-19, some confusion about the mathematics of it all keep floating around.

I've seen countless comments from people who say things like:

"The virus has only killed 20,000 people. The seasonal flu kills 60,000 people each year and we don't shut the country down for that!"

"Far more Americans die of flu/cancer/heart disease/etc. than will die from COVID-19 this year. Why aren't we shutting down the economy for those things?"

The idea that the coronavirus isn't markedly different or worse than the seasonal flu got an early hold in some people's consciousness when the virus first emerged. Part of the problem is that the virality and mortality of the virus hasn't been totally clear. Even Dr. Fauci and colleagues wrote an editorial published February 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine stating that the coronavirus death rates "may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza."

However, with a novel virus, things change quickly and experts' knowledge and understanding change along with it. As we saw numbers begin to emerge from around the world, it became clear that this virus is more contagious and far deadlier than the seasonal flu. Dr. Fauci stated in an interview with Trevor Noah on March 26 that the coronavirus was actually at least twice as contagious and ten times as deadly as the seasonal flu. Though death rates vary widely by country so far, and we won't have a clear picture of that rate for quite some time, it's clear that this isn't your average flu.

Additionally, normal flu seasons vary in severity, but the flu is largely a known quantity. We know there will be flu strains, and epidemiologists construct a vaccine each year based on their most informed guess as to which strains will be circulating the most. So we have vaccines and we have treatments to lessen flu severity, such as Tamiflu. And since flu-related deaths happen fairly evenly throughout flu season, our hospital system doesn't get overwhelmed by them.

Let's hold that thought about overwhelmed hospitals while we look at the other comment about various causes of death.

Yes, based on the numbers of deaths we've seen so far, more Americans die of things other than coronavirus each year. But there are some big "buts" here. Most of those causes of death are not communicable diseases. If shutting down the country for a period of time was guaranteed to save people's lives from heart disease or cancer, I'm sure we'd do that. But we are already doing what we can to try to reduce deaths from things like heart disease, cancer, car accidents, and the seasonal flu.

A viral pandemic gone unchecked is an entirely different beast. We have been watching both the case numbers and the death numbers rise dramatically, even after enacting social distancing and locking down the country.

This chart shows a daily visualization of the increase in COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. compared to the average daily deaths from various causes from March 1 to April 18, 2020. GIve it 10 seconds or so, since the virus deaths start off slow, but then really start really taking off after March 20.

By April 8, you can see that the virus's daily death toll overtakes every other cause of death in America.

This is called exponential growth. I've seen people say that coronavirus has killed 20,000 Americans in four months, making it sound like it was an average of 5,000 per month, but that's not how this works. In January, we had no deaths. In February, just a few. By March 26, we had 1,000. Less than 3 weeks later, we're at around 22,000. That's what we mean by exponential growth. No other cause of death does that.

And again, this is with mitigation measures in place for the past month. Imagine what it would look like if we'd kept up business as usual during the past few weeks and let the virus spread unchecked. This kind of exponential growth in deaths is exactly why nations around the globe have shut down businesses and enacted social distancing guidelines.

This is not the seasonal flu. We don't have a vaccine for this. We don't have a cure for this. We don't even have a sure-fire, reliable treatment for this.

The problem is that people see that numbers are not exploding as much as some models indicated they would and think "Oh, this has all been overblown!" They're only seeing some overwhelmed hospitals in select areas and think that means all of the widespread preparations and shutdowns weren't necessary. But that notion ignores the fact that the initial models provided an estimate for what would happen if we didn't shut the country down, which was an absolutely catastrophic outcome with millions of deaths. Without these "extreme" measures, the death toll would be far higher, and more hospitals would be out of beds and ventilators. And it's hard to predict beforehand where a big outbreak might spring up.

And we're not even close to out of the woods yet. Our case and death numbers are still climbing, though experts indicate that we may be at a peak where we might plateau for a while.

But the bottom line is that this virus is not like something we've seen before. The death numbers we've seen so far can't be compared to anything else. And we need to keep on doing what we're doing to keep those exponential numbers under control.





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Pop Culture

Mom leaves a 'heartbreaking' gift to flight passengers sitting next to her baby

"That's a mom trying so hard."

@callmebelly/TikTok

An excellent reminder to show kindness and patience.

Listening to a baby cry during a flight might be aggravating, but it’s nothing compared to the moans, groans, and eyerolls that the baby's parents must endure from other passengers when it happens. No matter what tips and tricks are used to try to soothe a little one’s temperament while 30,000 miles in the air, crying is almost inevitable. So, while having to ease their own child’s anxiety, moms and dads also must suffer being the pariah of the trip. What a nightmare.

Recently, one mom was apparently trying so hard to avoid upsetting her fellow flight members that she went above and beyond to essentially apologize ahead of time if her baby began to cry on its first flight. It was a gesture that, while thoughtful, had folks really feeling for how stressed that poor mom must be.

In a clip posted to his TikTok, one of the passengers—Elliot—explained that the mom handed out small care packages to those nearby.

“She’s already so busy and took the time to make these bags for everyone,” Elliot said, before panning the camera to reveal a Ziplock bag full of candy, along with a note that made him “want to cry.”

The note read: “It’s my first flight. I made a deal to be on my best behaviour—but I can’t make any guarantees. I might cry if I get scared or if my ears start to hurt. Here are some treats to make your flight enjoyable. Thank you for being patient with us. Have a great flight.”

@callmebelly♬ BIRDS OF A FEATHER - Billie Eilish

Like Elliot, those who watched the video felt some ambivalence at the well intentioned act. Many felt remorse that she would feel the need to appease people in this way.

“This is so sweet but also … kind of breaks my heart that we live in a world in which parents feel the need to do that.”

“Because jerk people have shamed parents into believing that they need to apologize for their kids' absolutely normal behavior. What a gem of a mom.”

“You know that sweet mom worried about this trip so much.”

“That poor mom probably spent nights awake … nervous about that flight, thinking of ways to keep strangers happy.”

"That's a mom trying so hard."

Many rallied behind the mom, arguing that making others feel more comfortable with her child being on board was in no way her responsibility.

“No mom should be apologizing. Adults can control their emotions … babies not …. Hugging this mom from a distance.”

“Dear new parents: no you don’t have to do this. Your babies have the right to exist. We all know babies cry. We know you try your best.”

Luckily, there are just as many stories of fellow passengers being completely compassionate towards parents with small children—from simply choosing to throw on their headphones during a tantrum (instead of throwing one themselves) to going out of their way to comfort a baby (and taking the load of a parent in the process). These little acts of kindness make more of an impact than we probably realize. Perhaps if we incorporated more of this “it takes a village” mindset, flying could be a little bit more pleasant for everyone involved.

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Joy

Teenage boy has perfect response when arrogant teacher refuses to believe his real name

He tried to explain his name and she gave him detention.

via Canva/Photos

A teenager has a real problem with his teacher.

As Dale Carnegie once wrote in “How to Win Friends and Influence People,” “A person’s name is to that person, the sweetest, most important sound in any language.” Understandably, people grow very attached to their names to the point that some studies suggest that names play a significant role in our destinies. In fact, people born with the last name Carpenter are more likely to become carpenters when they grow up.

So, it's no wonder people are sensitive about how others pronounce their names. When someone says your name wrong, it can feel very invalidating and make it look like they don't care. That’s probably why many people enjoyed a teenager's tale of getting sweet revenge on an arrogant teacher who refused to say his name correctly.

“My parents named me a shortened version of a posh-sounding name. For the sake of the story, let's say they called me Alex, which is short for Alexander. When this woman called my name, she would always use Alexander. I brought up to her that it was not my name multiple times and asked her to please call me Alex, as that's what my parents called me,” a Redditor shared on the Petty Revenge forum.

“She would always get angry and tell me, ‘Don’t be stupid, no one is named Alex. Your name is Alexander. Alex is just what you want to be called.’ No matter how much I insisted, she refused. At one point, she gave me a detention for asking her to call me my correct name,” he continued.

names, teacher, studentA teacher being stern with her student.via Canva/Photos

The name dispute got so heated that “Alex” was eventually sent to detention for arguing with his teacher. “When I told my parents I was supposed to have a detention for asking my teacher to call me the right name, they were unhappy. So they gave me a trump card to use against her: my birth certificate,” “Alex” wrote.

The next day, the teacher called him Alexander during roll call, but this time, he had the perfect ammunition to fight back: a legal document. “The next day, when she called my name, I once again told her that it wasn't my name. She threatened me with another detention, so I pulled out the birth certificate, put it down on her desk, and said, ‘My birth certificate says my name is Alex, so that's what you will call me. Thanks,’" "Alex" recalled. “The look on her face was priceless, and she started calling me my actual name for the rest of the time I was in her class.”


A person in the comments shared a similar story; this time, it was with the name Joey. “I know someone who on their birth certificate is Joey. The exact same thing happened to him. The teacher kept calling him Joseph, but he refused to answer. After a week, she called his mom and said something along the lines of: tell your son when someone calls him by his proper name, he needs to respond and not be disrespectful to his teacher. The mom questioned what name she was calling him, and she told her. Well, that mother went up one side of her and down the other. Why would I call him Joseph if we would call him Joey? We named him Joey, and that’s what is on his birth certificate. This was back in the ‘80s.”

It’s strange that the teacher went out of her way to call the kid the name she preferred over his wishes. Even if his real name was Alexander, what’s wrong with referring to someone by their chosen name? Brandishing his birth certificate as “Alex” may have felt like sweet revenge for the teenager, but it also shows the teacher and the class an important lesson on why it's important to listen to others.

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Science

Innovative farm in Virginia can grow 4 million pounds of strawberries on less than one acre

This method uses 97 percent less land and up to 90 percent less water than conventional farming.

Photo credit: Canva

A new way to grow strawberries with less land, less water, and more berries.

Strawberry farm harvests aren't something most of us calculate on a regular basis (or ever at all), but the numbers from a strawberry farm in Richmond, Virginia, are staggering enough to make it worth an old-school word problem. If the average American eats 8 pounds of strawberries a year, and an average strawberry farm yields approximately 20,000 pounds of berries per acre, how many people could a 200-acre strawberry field feed?

I won't make you do the math. The answer is 500,000 people. But what if a crop that size, providing enough strawberries for half a million people, could be grown on just one acre instead of 200? It's possible. You just have to go—or rather grow—up, up, up.

Indoor vertical farm company Plenty Unlimited knows a lot about growing up. In fact, it's their entire business model. Instead of the sprawling fields that traditional farming methods require, vertical farms have a much smaller land footprint, utilizing proprietary towers for growing. Plenty has used vertical farming methods to grow greens such as lettuce, kale, spinach and more for years, but now it boasts a vertical berry farm that can yield a whopping 4 million pounds of strawberries on a little less than an acre.

Growing indoors means not being at the mercy of weather or climate inpredictability (barring a storm taking out your building), which is wise in the era of climate change. Unlike a traditional greenhouse which still uses the sun for light, Plenty's indoor vertical farms make use of the latest technology and research on light, pinpointing the wavelengths plants need from the sun to thrive and recreating them with LED lights. Plenty farms also don't use soil, as what plants really need is water and nutrients, which can be provided without soil (and with a lot less water than soil requires). Being able to carefully control water and nutrients means you can more easily control the size, taste and uniformity of the berries you’re growing.

If that sounds like a lot of control, it is. And that idea might freak people out. But when a highly controlled environment means not having to use pesticides and using up to 90% less water than traditional farming, it starts to sound like a solid, sustainable farming innovation.

Plenty even uses AI in its strawberry farm, according to its website:

“Every element of the Plenty Richmond Farm–including temperature, light and humidity–is precisely controlled through proprietary software to create the perfect environment for the strawberry plants to thrive. The farm uses AI to analyze more than 10 million data points each day across its 12 grow rooms, adapting each grow room’s environment to the evolving needs of the plants – creating the perfect environment for Driscoll’s proprietary plants to thrive and optimizing the strawberries’ flavor, texture and size.”

Plenty even has its own patent-pending method of pollinating the strawberry flowers that doesn’t require bees. Even just the fact that this enormous crop of strawberries will be coming from Virginia is notable, since the vast majority of strawberries in the U.S. are grown in California.

strawberry fieldTraditional strawberry farming takes up a lot of land.Photo credit: Canva

Plenty's Richmond farm is currently growing strawberries exclusively for Driscoll’s.

“Partnering with Plenty for the launch of the Richmond Farm allows us to bring our premium strawberries closer to consumers in the Northeast, the largest berry consumption region in the U.S.,” Driscoll’s CEO Soren Bjorn said in a press release. “By combining our 100 years of farming expertise and proprietary varieties along with Plenty’s cutting-edge technology, we can deliver the same consistent flavor and quality our customers love — now grown locally. This new innovative farm is a powerful step forward in continuing to drive category growth in new ways for our customers and consumers.”

Is Plenty’s model the farm of the future? Perhaps it’s one option, at least. The more we grapple with the impact of climate change and outdated, unsustainable farming practices, the more innovative ideas we’ll need to feed the masses. If they can get 4 million pounds of strawberries out of an acre of land, what else is possible?

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Education

'Supercommuter' mom takes a flight to work every day because it's cheaper than living there

She says a 40 minute flight is well worth it financially and emotionally.

Photo credit: Canva

Crazy that she ends up with MORE free time.

Would you commute to work on a plane every day to save money? For Racheal Kaur, a mom who lives in Malaysia, it was a no-brainer. In a recent interview with CNA Insider, Kaur shared how she takes a 40-minute flight from Penang to Kuala Lumpur every single day of the work week, and claimed that being a “supercommuter” isn’t only more cost effective, but also provides more work-life balance.

To get to work by 9am, Kaur gets up and out of the house well before dawn, leaving her house by 5am, and boarding on a plane by 5:55am and arrives in the city with a little over an hour to spare. She then flies for around 40 minutes (enjoying what she calls her “me time”) then repeats the process to get home. Every day, Monday through Friday.

While unconventional, Kaur told CNA Insider that this schedule actually has time to spend with her kids, aged 12 and 11, at night, and even “help with any last-minute homework,” which she feels is “everything” as her kids grow older.

- YouTubewww.youtube.com

From a cost perspective, Kaur apparently pays $223 a month for her current mortgage in Penang, whereas living in Kuala Lumpur would cost around $340 per month. And while Kaur pays out of pocket for her flight, she does receive a discount, and pays the equivalent of $11 USD a day. Overall things even out, and she’s even able to save money.

While this strategy can occasionally get tricker during busier times of the year, since commercial passengers take priority, Kaur assures that considering everything, it’s all “well worth it.”

Previously, Upworthy had highlighted another supercommuter—a student at Berkeley who flew from Los Angeles to the infamously expensive city of San Francisco for class three days a week, using various frequent flyer miles/points from credit card sign up bonuses he had accumulated over the years.

And while this strategy certainly works for some, it might not work for everyone. Steve Kass, a writer for Fast Company and fellow supercommuter, suggest to ask yourself the following questions before committing to the frequent flier lifestyle:

  • Can you handle less downtime?
  • Will it disrupt your sleep schedule?
  • Are you healthy enough to handle the physically demanding task of traveling?
  • Obvious, but important one: is this financially feasible long-term?
  • Do you love your job? If it’s rewarding, the sacrifice feels worth it, Kass says.
  • Can you see yourself doing this long term? If not, is there a deadline you can create for yourself?

And even if this ends up not being a viable option for you, stories like these are good reminders that you really can can forge a lifestyle that meets all your needs, especially if you conjure up a little creative thinking.

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Humor

DoorDash drivers are spilling the tea after mom finds out weird way her 12-year-old gets food

"We listen and we don't judge."

Photo credit: Canva

DoorDash drivers spill about teens' weird delivery instructions

Sometimes you want a little midnight snacky-snack and nothing in the house sounds good, so you DoorDash something tasty before bed. This is something that has become fairly normal in American society since the food delivery option has become available. But when people order a late night treat, they're typically waiting in close proximity to the front door so they can quickly grab their food.

But it seems that's not always the case for everyone that anxiously awaits their food delivery. Claudia Mercer recently learned that her 12-year-old son has been sneaking food through his bedroom window via DoorDash. The mom comes to this realization after reviewing her security footage only to see a car pull into her driveway and a man carrying a bag cut through her grass to get to her child hanging out of his bedroom window.

Mercer uploaded the video to social media where it has more than 700k views, and while her son's late night antics are certainly giggle worthy, the comment section was full of food delivery stories. DoorDashers flocked to the video to spill all the tea on their strange delivery requests.

@claudiamercer5♬ Stealthy mischief(1088178) - KBYS

If you've never ordered from DoorDash, you may not be aware that there's a section for instructions before you complete the order. The instructions box is supposed to be used to tell drivers to leave the food on the table instead of the welcome mat, or to place it inside the cooler next to the front door. But it turns out some people get a bit creative with their instructions when they're attempting to sneak food in their homes, offices or other venues where they don't want others to know.

These DoorDash drivers take their job as seriously as therapists take their HIPAA requirement. They are listening to the instructions given and not judging anything requested because whatever comes through that app is between you and your dasher. No need for the other folks around to know you're eating a second dinner, that's your business, DoorDash is just following directions.

Sneaking Gerry Dee GIF by CBCGiphy

One delivery person shares, "Delivered pizzas to a basket hanging from a second story window once. Cash and tip was in it so I sent them up."

Another DoorDasher writes, "Yep as a Dasher, I have delivered like that before. I had a kid that asked me to deliver it through his window because he didn’t want to eat with[sic] his mom was making for dinner."

Someone else laughs, "As a doordasher. I saw a kid jumped out of a window to come get his food, the directions read “turn off lights and do not get out of the car. Call when you get close” we listen and we don’t judge."

Delivery Dashing GIF by DoorDashGiphy

Seems like kids are sneaky little people as there seems to be a bit of a pattern here as one person admits, "I had a kid tell me how to avoid the camera and wait until his mom left. I felt like a private detective ninja."

Asking someone to fake being a relative is a next level request, "Once I had a kid make me pretend to be his aunt and drop off his food at school."

"I had to door dash for a family. wife told me to hide her milkshake. bc she didn't want to share it with her family. lol," one person shares.

Hungry Amazon Prime GIF by primevideoinGiphy

"I delivered to some teens a few weeks ago. They asked me to deliver to a window behind the bushes so their parents wouldn’t see," a driver adds.

Clearly the DoorDash drivers are only concerned about you getting your food no matter where they need to sneakily drop it off. Hide it under a bush, cool. Put it in the basket hanging from a rope from the second story, no problem. Drop it off behind the school close to the gate, absolutely. They are here to make sure you don't go hungry or have to eat your mom's broccoli casserole and they're doing it without judging. But if you have your dasher going through Indiana Jones level adventures to drop off food, maybe leave them an extra tip for their dedication to your order.

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